Box Metrics for Intraday Traders

One of the best ways of understanding your trading–and your trading psychology–is to collect data on your trading. There are many metrics available for understanding your trading patterns (see the links below), but here are a few unusual metrics that I’ve found to be especially illuminating:

1) P/L for Your Largest Trades – When you’re at your most aggressive, do you make money or lose? Are you aggressive because you see genuine opportunity, or are you aggressive out of frustration.

2) P/L for Your Most Active Trading Days – When you’re placing more trades, do you tend to make more money, or do the added trades detract from profitability? Are you trading more because more is going on in the markets, or are you trading more for reasons other than opportunity?

3) P/L as a Function of Market Condition – How much money do you make in volatile markets? Quiet ones? Range days? Trending markets? Breaking down P/L by market conditions can often highlight trading strengths as well as vulnerabilities.

4) P/L as a Function of Time of Day – Very often, traders perform differently in the morning, midday, and afternoon, as institutional participation (and market movement) varies with the clock. Tracing P/L as a function of time period can also highlight strengths and provide guidance for when you may want to trade most aggressively.

5) P/L Following Winning and Losing Days – How well do you trade after a winning day (or week)? After losing days or weeks? Do you become more cautious after losing periods, more aggressive, or do you trade the same? Do you tend to lose money after winning periods, or do you trade with greater confidence and flexibility after a green period? Patterns of winning and losing often reflect a trader’s psyche: risk aversion, overconfidence, frustration, etc.

Coaching yourself begins with self-understanding. The more you know about your trading patterns, the more able you will be to build upon strengths and correct (or work around) weaknesses. The best way to not correct a problem pattern is to be unaware of it.

Stock Index Chart Patterns: S&P 500 and FTSE 100 – Jan 23, 2015

S&P 500 Index Chart

 
 
The daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500 shows a ding-dong battle between bulls and bears. A couple of downward breaches of the lower support line of the bearish ‘rising wedge’ pattern have been followed by upward bounces back inside the wedge – one at the beginning of the month and one last week. On both occasions, the index faced strong resistance from the 2064 level and dropped lower.

Both downward breaches were within the 3% ‘whipsaw’ limit – which may explain why the index successfully pulled back within the wedge. Observant readers may note that the index has closed below the wedge once again, but remains above its three EMAs in a long-term bull market. Despite a long bull phase followed by a clearly visible bearish pattern, the index has not reversed trend yet. The wedge may need to be slightly redrawn based on the next few days trading.

The index has been consolidating sideways in a range between 1988 and 2064 during this month. The possibility of such a consolidation was mentioned in last week’s post.
Daily technical indicators are looking bullish – but not overly so. MACD has crossed above its signal line, but is in negative zone. RSI crossed above its 50% level, but has turned down. Slow stochastic is looking the most bullish by rising sharply towards its overbought zone.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index dropped below its 20 week EMA for the third week in a row but closed above it – and is trading above its three weekly EMAs in a long-term bull market. All three weekly technical indicators are in bullish zones but MACD and Slow stochastic are showing downward momentum. Let a clearer picture emerge before taking any buy/sell decision.

FTSE 100 Index Chart

 
 
In a surprising bullish move, the daily bar chart pattern of FTSE 100 rallied for 7 straight days to move comfortably move above its three daily EMAs, and broke out above the large ‘symmetrical triangle’ pattern within which it was consolidating since early Sep ‘14.

Daily technical indicators were showing some bullish signs last week. They are now turning overbought. MACD has climbed to the edge of its overbought zone. RSI is just below its overbought zone. Slow stochastic is well inside its overbought zone. The index may pullback towards the triangle – giving a buying opportunity.

The 20 day and 50 day EMAs have started rising up towards the 200 day EMA. Both will need to cross above the long-term moving average for bulls to regain control.
On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index is trading well above its three weekly EMAs in a long-term bull market. The 20 week EMA is about to cross above the 50 week EMA. Weekly technical indicators are looking bullish. Time to initiate long positions.

You are in a bull market.When..

You offer your broker a car each morning so he doesn’t need to take the Mumbai local to get to the terminal by 9:15am.

The pink papers are the first to disappear from your lap when you fall asleep on a flight.Every third executive works through the day with the Moneycontrol site minimized on his computer screen

The excitement in otherwise pin-drop offices is not about Kolkata Knight Riders’s victory but PTC India Financial hitting another circuit.

Old-timers get nostalgic about V P Singh’s 1985 Budget and Manmohan Singh’s game-changing 1991 Budget but conclude ‘this one is different.’

Karvy says the Sensex will hit 100,000 by 2020 and people say ‘That late?’ 😳

You use the wizened ‘Book your profit’ line in evening conversation and people arch their eyebrows with that elevator look as if your clothes didn’t fit.

Even Ridham Desai says it would be better for investors not to get too cheeky about buying on declines because ‘you are not going to be able to catch these declines as smartly as you think you can.’

The most self-confessed wretched are not those who didn’t buy the right stock but those who complain they didn’t buy enough.

You feel so wasted on Saturdays and Sundays you re-read the weekday stock quotations.The favorite fantasy is not (plug in your preferred weakness) but salivating with the thought of ‘If I had bought 50,000 shares of Suzlon energy @  Rs 8…’

Half the country is talking to you but craning their neck towards the CNBC / ET NOW channels

The real work of the day begins only after 3:30 pm.
An entire country that was struggling to fund the confidence to price stocks on retrospective earnings has started using that seductive ‘based on FY17 earnings…’

Conservative companies, which used words like ‘accruals’ even as recent as mid-May now pepper every third line with qualified institutional placement.

A broker calls a company not to ask ‘Will the next quarter be good?’ but ‘Any block of shares available?’

Gurus recommend we short gold, disinvest surplus real estate and laugh at eight per cent tax-free paper

The best ear-raiser at a party is ‘just yesterday, I was speaking to a fund manager in Singapore.’

You need to get to your retail broker’s office at 8:45 to get the chair closest to the trading terminal.

At 3.30, you wish the markets are on till 5.
You do things you probably have not done in six years, like offering to take the family on a three-day Phuket trip.

You go to the Mercedes showroom to ask about the price of the M Class with a diplomatic ‘just asking, you know…’

When you are full of which stock will quadruple in how much time resulting in exactly what annualized return, but no clue why.

If you bring up even a whispered reference to ‘The Black Swan’ by Nicholas Nassim Taleb, someone is going to soon discuss your parentage.

NIFTY, BANKNIFTY AND STOCKS OPTIONS CALLS OPTIONS FOR 16TH JANUARY 2015

BUY BANKNIFTY 19800CE AT/ABOVE 84.6 FOR TARGETS OF 120/138.1/156.2 WITH SL OF 63.7

BUY BANKNIFTY 18700PE AT/ABOVE 79 FOR TARGETS OF 134.8/163.1/191.5 WITH SL OF 48.3

BUY NIFTY 8500CE AT/ABOVE 81.8 FOR TARGETS OF 120.6/140.4/160.3 WITH SL OF 59.3

BUY NIFTY 8500PE AT/ABOVE 67.4 FOR TARGETS OF 102/119.7/137.4 WITH SL OF 47.6

BUY AXISBANK 530CE AT/ABOVE 5.7 FOR TARGETS OF 7.9/9/10.2 WITH SL OF 4.4
BUY AXISBANK 500PE AT/ABOVE 5.6 FOR TARGETS OF 8.6/10.1/11.6 WITH SL OF 4

BUY TATAMOTORS 530CE AT/ABOVE 12.9 FOR TARGETS OF 16.3/18/19.8 WITH SL OF 10.6
BUY TATAMOTORS 530PE AT/ABOVE 8.5 FOR TARGETS OF 11.5/13.1/14.6 WITH SL OF 6.7

BUY TATASTEEL 380CE AT/ABOVE 12.3 FOR TARGETS OF 16.6/18.7/20.9 WITH SL OF 9.8
BUY TATASTEEL 380PE AT/ABOVE 6.8 FOR TARGETS OF 11.6/14/16.4 WITH SL OF 4.2

BUY SBIN 310CE AT/ABOVE 12.6 FOR TARGETS OF 15.9/17.6/19.3 WITH SL OF 10.4
BUY SBIN 320PE AT/ABOVE 5.8 FOR TARGETS OF 8.2/9.4/10.7 WITH SL OF 4.3

BUY YESBANK 820CE AT/ABOVE 14 FOR TARGETS OF 21.2/24.9/28.5 WITH SL OF 9.9

STOCK FUTURES CALLS FOR 16TH JANUARY 2015

BUY BANKNIFTY FUT AT/ABOVE 19178.9 FOR TARGETS OF 19380.8/19491.4 WITH SL OF 19033.9
BUY NIFTY FUT AT/ABOVE 8486 FOR TARGETS OF 8552.6/8590.2 WITH SL OF 8435.7
BUY AXISBANK FUT AT/ABOVE 510.9 FOR TARGETS OF 518.3/522.2 WITH SL OF 505.3
BUY BHARTIARTL FUT AT/ABOVE 348.9 FOR TARGETS OF 353.6/356.1 WITH SL OF 345.3
BUY CENTURYTEX FUT AT/ABOVE 553.8 FOR TARGETS OF 562.8/567.6 WITH SL OF 547.2
BUY HDFC FUT AT/ABOVE 1188 FOR TARGETS OF 1224.8/1243.8 WITH SL OF 1165.2
BUY HINDALCO FUT AT/ABOVE 140.3 FOR TARGETS OF 144.5/146.7 WITH SL OF 137.7
BUY ICICIBANK FUT AT/ABOVE 351.5 FOR TARGETS OF 355.9/358.2 WITH SL OF 348
BUY IDFC FUT AT/ABOVE 165.9 FOR TARGETS OF 172.2/175.5 WITH SL OF 162.2
BUY IRB FUT AT/ABOVE 237.3 FOR TARGETS OF 242.9/245.9 WITH SL OF 233.6
BUY JINDALSTEL FUT AT/ABOVE 150.4 FOR TARGETS OF 154/155.8 WITH SL OF 148
BUY JUBLFOOD FUT AT/ABOVE 1403.4 FOR TARGETS OF 1424/1435.1 WITH SL OF 1388.1
BUY KTKBANK FUT AT/ABOVE 144 FOR TARGETS OF 147.6/149.5 WITH SL OF 141.6
BUY LICHSGFIN FUT AT/ABOVE 463.4 FOR TARGETS OF 470.3/474 WITH SL OF 458.2
BUY POWERGRID FUT AT/ABOVE 141.1 FOR TARGETS OF 144.6/146.5 WITH SL OF 138.8
BUY SBIN FUT AT/ABOVE 318.6 FOR TARGETS OF 323.6/326.3 WITH SL OF 315.3
BUY SYNDIBANK FUT AT/ABOVE 130.9 FOR TARGETS OF 132.7/133.6 WITH SL OF 129.7
BUY TATAPOWER FUT AT/ABOVE 81.3 FOR TARGETS OF 82.8/83.5 WITH SL OF 80.3
BUY TATASTEEL FUT AT/ABOVE 381.5 FOR TARGETS OF 390.5/395.2 WITH SL OF 375.6
BUY YESBANK FUT AT/ABOVE 810.2 FOR TARGETS OF 819.3/824.3 WITH SL OF 802.7

SELL BANKNIFTY FUT AT/BELOW 19361.4 FOR TARGETS OF 19159.7/19049.2 WITH SL OF 19502.1
SELL NIFTY FUT AT/BELOW 8544 FOR TARGETS OF 8477.5/8439.9 WITH SL OF 8594.9
SELL AXISBANK FUT AT/BELOW 517.8 FOR TARGETS OF 510.4/506.5 WITH SL OF 523.3
SELL BHARTIARTL FUT AT/BELOW 353.2 FOR TARGETS OF 348.5/346 WITH SL OF 356.8
SELL CENTURYTEX FUT AT/BELOW 562.3 FOR TARGETS OF 553.3/548.5 WITH SL OF 568.8
SELL HDFC FUT AT/BELOW 1223.6 FOR TARGETS OF 1186.8/1167.8 WITH SL OF 1246.3
SELL HINDALCO FUT AT/BELOW 144.4 FOR TARGETS OF 140.2/138 WITH SL OF 147
SELL ICICIBANK FUT AT/BELOW 355.5 FOR TARGETS OF 351.1/348.8 WITH SL OF 358.9
SELL IDFC FUT AT/BELOW 172.1 FOR TARGETS OF 165.8/162.5 WITH SL OF 175.8
SELL IRB FUT AT/BELOW 242.7 FOR TARGETS OF 237.1/234.1 WITH SL OF 246.3
SELL JINDALSTEL FUT AT/BELOW 153.8 FOR TARGETS OF 150.2/148.4 WITH SL OF 156.2
SELL JUBLFOOD FUT AT/BELOW 1422.6 FOR TARGETS OF 1402/1390.9 WITH SL OF 1438
SELL KTKBANK FUT AT/BELOW 147.4 FOR TARGETS OF 143.8/141.9 WITH SL OF 149.8
SELL LICHSGFIN FUT AT/BELOW 469.8 FOR TARGETS OF 462.9/459.2 WITH SL OF 475
SELL POWERGRID FUT AT/BELOW 144.5 FOR TARGETS OF 141/139.1 WITH SL OF 146.8
SELL SBIN FUT AT/BELOW 323.3 FOR TARGETS OF 318.3/315.6 WITH SL OF 327
SELL SYNDIBANK FUT AT/BELOW 132.6 FOR TARGETS OF 130.8/129.9 WITH SL OF 133.9
SELL TATAPOWER FUT AT/BELOW 82.7 FOR TARGETS OF 81.2/80.5 WITH SL OF 83.7
SELL TATASTEEL FUT AT/BELOW 390.1 FOR TARGETS OF 381.1/376.4 WITH SL OF 396
SELL YESBANK FUT AT/BELOW 818.5 FOR TARGETS OF 809.4/804.4 WITH SL OF 825.9

Nifty chart: a mid-week update (Jan 14 ‘15)

CPI and WPI inflation have started inching up again, as the effect of a higher base starts to wear off. Higher food prices played a part as well. The positive IIP number raised bullish hopes.

FIIs have been net sellers of equity worth Rs 2200 Crores this month. DII net buying of about Rs 1400 Crores has prevented a bigger fall in Nifty. Both FIIs and DIIs were net sellers today.

Global economic growth is likely to be lower than an earlier forecast of 3.4% by the World Bank. Sharply falling oil prices is an indication of lack of demand. Slower growth and a rising Dollar index have motivated many FIIs to book profits.


 
 
After forming a small ‘double top’ reversal pattern in early Dec ‘14 (by touching levels of 8623 on Dec 1 and 8627 on Dec 4), Nifty corrected sharply below its 20 day and 50 day EMAs but found good support in the support-resistance zone between 7840 and 8180.

The index has since been consolidating sideways within a ‘symmetrical triangle’ pattern. Since triangle patterns tend to be unreliable, the eventual break out can occur in either direction.

The index has already touched the upper (downward-sloping) resistance line and the lower (upward-sloping) support line of the triangle twice. That means a break out from the triangle can occur at any time.

Remember that for technical validity any upward break out should be accompanied by a surge in volumes. Otherwise, the break out may turn out to be ‘false’. A downward break does not require strong volume support.

There is also a third possibility that can negate the triangle pattern.
The index may continue to move sideways through the apex of the triangle, which is approximately at the 8250 level. In such an event, the 8250 level can become a support-resistance level for future Nifty movements.

Daily technical indicators are giving mixed signals, which often happens during periods of consolidation. MACD is mildly bullish, as it has crossed above its signal line in negative zone. ROC is a little bearish. It has crossed below its 10 day MA, and looks ready to enter negative zone.

RSI is looking bullish. It has bounced up after receiving support from its 50% level. Slow stochastic is in bullish zone (i.e. above its 50% level), but its upward momentum has stalled.

On balance, the scale is tipped in favour of bulls. The gradually rising 200 day EMA - with the index trading above the long-term moving average - should dispel any doubts about the continuation of the bull market.

The consolidation can be used as an opportunity to reallocate your portfolio. If you are a patient long-term investor, let the consolidation play out. If you are interested in making quick profits – you are at the wrong place.

WTI and Brent Crude Oil charts: fall to 6 yr lows

WTI Crude chart


 
 
The daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude oil halted for a few days around the 55 level in Dec ‘14. But it was just a temporary pause. The down move resumed in earnest. The psychological level of 50 was breached easily as oil’s price plunged to 6 yr lows.

All three technical indicators are well inside their respective oversold zones, but showing positive divergences by touching slightly higher bottoms. Bulls need not hope for any reversal of trend. The bear grip is too strong.

How much lower can oil’s price fall? Already experts are discussing targets below 30. Adequate supply and weak global demand have been compounded by OPEC’s failure to agree on a production cut.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil’s price is falling like a stone below its three weekly EMAs in a long-term bear market. Weekly technical indicators are sliding deeper inside their respective oversold zones. There is no sign of a bottom formation.

Brent Crude chart

 
 
The daily bar chart pattern of Brent Crude oil tried to find a bottom at 60, but gave up after a few days. A slight pause at the psychological level of 50 was followed by a drop to a 6 yr low.

Technical indicators are well inside their respective oversold zones, but showing positive divergences by not touching new lows with oil’s price. That doesn’t mean that the slide in oil’s price will stop any time soon.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), all three weekly EMAs are falling, and oil’s price is falling well below them in a long-term bear market. Technical indicators are sliding deeper inside their respective oversold zones.

Trading strategy for 13th January 2015

                        The market after flat opening yesterday slipped to day’s low in morning trades but recovered in post noon trades and finally closed in the positive with the Sensex at 27585, up by 126 points after dipping to a low of 27323 in morning trades while the Nifty ended at 8323, up by 38 points. FMCG, consumer goods, and financial sector stocks remained in demand and closed higher. Meantime, IIP data released after the market hours yesterday turned above street expectation while CPI remains slightly off the mark. Readers are advised to trade with caution keeping stock specific approach.

NIFTY FUTURE (Last close 8360.55)

The counter after flat opening yesterday recovered in post afternoon session on short covering and finally closed the day gaining over 45 points. The counter to retain its up move needs to trade and remain above 8373.75 whereby it may move up to 8389/8409. Strong support for the counter exists at 8342.25 which if breached decisively with volumes then it may slide to 8324/8300.

BANK NIFTY FUTURE (Last close 18889.35)

The counter after flat opening yesterday soon surged higher on hectic buying and remained firm thereafter and finally closed the session with a gain of 180 points. The counter to retain its up move needs to trade and remain above 18923.75 whereby it may move up to 18980/19055. Strong support for the counter exists at 18844.25 which if breached decisively with volumes then it may slide to 18791/18744.

GODREJ IND FUTURE (Last close 289.85)

The stock after consolidating during the past sessions closed yesterday above its weekly buy signal with moderate volumes gaining over 1%. The stock appears positive on charts and may move up to 293/295 on volume trading. Strong support for the stock exists at 286.25.
 
ACC FUTURE (Last close 1409.80)

The stock after consolidating during the past sessions closed yesterday above its weekly buy signal with moderate volumes gaining over ½%. The stock appears positive on charts and may move up to 1417/1428 on volume trading. Strong support for the stock exists at 1402.25.

Bank Nifty Weekly forecast for 12-16 Jan

Bank Nifty Hourly

Bank Nifty hourly chart is forming a triangle pattern breakout comes above 18800 for a target of new high and breakdown 18400 for initital target of 18100

Bank Nifty Hourly  EW Daily

Hourly Elliot wave analysis is shown,18450 will play crucial role next week.

Bank Nifty EW Daily

As per EW on daily chart use dips, deep correction  in bank nifty to make positions in quality banking stocks, Many Banking stock can give atleast 30-50% return in 2015.

 Bank Nifty Daily Bias

Bank Nifty has giving a false breakout on daily charts and next week again we might see a breakout above 18900.

Bank Nifty Gann Dates

As per time analysis 16 Jan  is Gann Turn date , except a impulsive around this date.Last week we gave 9 Jan and Bank Nifty saw a decline of 200 points and closed in negative even though nifty closed in positive.

Fibonacci technique

 Fibonacci Fans

Bank nifty took support@ Fibo fan line suggesting still in buy on dips mode. Now break of 18900 will suggests more  new highs are coming.

Bank Nifty Weekly

Bank Nifty Weekly chart took support at middle of  AF line and harmonic pattern suggests still its in buy on dips mode.Break of 18900 will suggest bank nifty can move up and form new life high.Bank Nifty has moved in positive quadrant.

Bank Nifty Monthly

This is what we discussed in previous  analysis Bank Nifty in current correction took support@ 200% channel which is extremely bullish in short term. Holding the same Bank nifty can approach to make a new life highs.

 Bank Nifty Weekly Chopad Levels

Bank Nifty Trend Deciding Level:18686

Bank Nifty Resistance:18816,18946,19206

Bank Nifty Support:18556,18426,18166

3 Unbreakable Trading Rules

Regular readers of my posts already know that I have a strong bias towards long-term investing. It is important for young investors to understand that short-term trading in stocks may seem fun and exciting – but those are precisely the feelings that lead to losses.

Those who enter the market for the first time often have very little capital to spare. Short-term trading seems like a quick way to make some money. Or, as a short-cut to acquire the latest object of desire – may be an iPad, or an iPhone. They soon find out that the stock market is not a place for making easy money.

Short-term trading is serious business. Most successful traders have spent many years in the stock market. They have gained experience by making mistakes – and have learned the hard way (by losing money) that trading is not fun and games. It requires a particular mindset and strict discipline.

In a recent article, Greg Guenthner (The Rude Awakening) wrote: 

The stock market doesn't care about you. It doesn't care what kind of fancy degree you have. It doesn't care how many years of trading experience you have -- or how many complex techniques you use to pick your investments.

Got it? Ok, good. Because if you want to succeed in the market, you need to adopt that same spirit of indifference. You need to forget about your beliefs, emotions and hunches. In other words, you need a "trader's mindset"...

Greg also wrote about his ‘3 Unbreakable Trading Rules’:

1) Price is King – price action shows all you need to know about the market; don’t be guided by emotions, hunches or astrology. If the price action seems illogical and goes against your analysis – obey it anyway. Not losing money is more important than being ‘right’.

2) Don’t chase overheated stocks – particularly if you have been following a stock for some time, hoping to buy it on a correction and it suddenly flies away. Have the discipline to control your urge to buy. Wait for the next correction, or look for another stock.

3) Don’t let a trade turn into an investment – despite your best efforts, some trades will go against you. If you hold on, hoping to get back your cost – your short-term trade may turn into a long-term losing investment. Be ruthless about getting out as soon as your stop-loss is hit. That will prevent a small, short-term loss from turning into a large long-term disaster.

FII FnO Data Analysis for 09 Jan

• FII’s sold 6.7 K contract of Index Future worth 176 cores, 2.1 K Long contract were squared off  by FII’s and 4.5 K  short contracts  were added  by FII’s. Net Open Interest increased  by 2.4 K contract ,so FII’s squared off  long and added shorts in Index futures.

• This is what we discussed yesterday Nifty hourly chart touched the support line and formed a doji candlestick pattern similar to the one @ lows 7961 signalling short term bottom . Tomorrow going by historical data we should see gap up opening, and need to see a rally till 8200/8232 odd levels. Nifty opened with a gap up and closed at 8234. Now expect another gap up tomorrow going by historical data and traders should watch 8325-8320 range where next level of resistance lies ie. yeallow line of gann box as shown in below chart.
  

• Nifty Future Jan Open Interest Volume is at 1.77  core with liquidation of 9.1 lakh in OI, short covering seen today.
  

• Total Future & Option trading volume was   at 1.68 lakh core with total contract traded at 4 lakh. PCR @1.05.

• 8400  CE  OI at 53.9 lakh so wall of resistance @ 8400.8200/8400 CE saw liquidation of 19.2 lakhs so bears were taken off the guard and running for cover. FII bought 18.3 K CE and 10 K CE were shorted  by them.
  

• 8100 PE OI@ 47.3 lakhs so strong base @ 8100. 8200 PE  added 4  lakh in OI 8200 PE writers are getting confident of holding and 8300/8500 added 10 lakh in OI so bulls are back with bang. FII bought 8.8 K PE and 4 K shorted  PE  were covered by them.
  

• FII’s sold 466 cores in Equity and DII bought 288 cores in cash segment.INR closed at 62.66 biggest fall in recent time.
  

• Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 8233 (For Intraday Traders). NF Trend Changer Level (Positional Traders) 8305 and BNF Trend Deciding Level 18687 (For Intraday Traders) BNF Trend Changer Level (Positional Traders) 18815 .How to trade Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures as per Trend Changer Level . 

Buy above 8245 Tgt 8262,8291 and 8339 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Sell below 8215 Tgt 8186,8150 and 8120 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Nifty forms Doji pattern, FII FnO Data Analysis

• FII’s sold 11.9 K contract of Index Future worth 216 cores, 23.4 K Long contract were squared off  by FII’s and 11.5 K  short contracts  were squared off by FII’s. Net Open Interest decreased  by 35 K contract ,so FII’s squared off both long and shorts in Index futures.

• Nifty hourly chart touched the support line and formed a doji candlestick pattern similar to the one @ lows 7961 signalling short term bottom . Tomorrow going by historical data we should see gap up opening, and need to see a rally till 8200/8232 odd levels. Break of 8065 signals we might go down and touch 7961 odd levels.
  

• Nifty Future Jan Open Interest Volume is at 1.87  core with liquidation of 4.4 lakh in OI. Still no fresh short additions seen.
  

• Total Future & Option trading volume was   at 2.32 lakh core with total contract traded at 5.1 lakh. PCR @0.92 excessive bullishness  out of the system as PCR moved below 1

• 8400  CE  OI at 59.3 lakh so wall of resistance @ 8400.8200/8400 CE saw addition of 27 lakhs so bears are attacking all strike prices and any strong reversal will take them off the guard. FII bought 6.3 K CE and 55.2 K CE were shorted  by them.
  

• 8100 PE OI@ 46.5 lakhs so strong base @ 8100. 8200 PE  added 2.5  lakh in OI 8200 PE writers are getting confident and we can see Nifty moving above 8200 tommrow. FII bought 77.4 K PE and 1.7 K shorted  PE  were covered by them.
  

• FII’s sold 1074 cores in Equity and DII bought 601 cores in cash segment.INR closed at 63.17 biggest fall in recent time.
  

• Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 8145 (For Intraday Traders). NF Trend Changer Level (Positional Traders) 8312 and BNF Trend Deciding Level 18437 (For Intraday Traders) BNF Trend Changer Level (Positional Traders) 18828, Traders following TC levels were rewarded handsomely  .How to trade Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures as per Trend Changer Level . 

Buy above 8108 Tgt 8145,8160 and 8192 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Sell below 8060 Tgt 8340,8020 and 7975 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Gold and Silver charts: consolidating sideways in bear markets

Gold Chart Pattern

Not much has happened on the daily bar chart pattern of gold since the previous post three weeks back. Gold’s price consolidated sideways in a range between 1170 and 1210, with a slight downward bias.

Despite a surge and close above the 1200 level on a volume up tick on Jan 5, gold’s price has  formed a bearish pattern of slightly lower tops and bottoms. The steadily falling 200 day EMA is an indication that bears are in control.

Daily technical indicators are showing some bullish signs. MACD is negative, but has just crossed above its signal line. RSI has managed to climb above its 50% level. Slow stochastic is rising towards its 50% level. However, any attempt at a rally is likely to be short-lived.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), all three weekly EMAs are falling, and gold’s price is trading below them in a long-term bear market. Technical indicators are looking mildly bullish. Any rally is likely to face bear selling.

Silver Chart Pattern

The daily bar chart pattern of silver has been consolidating sideways in a range between 15.50 and 16.50 during the past three weeks. The falling 50 day EMA provided overhead resistance.

Silver’s price has formed a bearish ‘descending triangle’ pattern during the past month, from which the likely break out is downwards. The previous low of 14 is likely to be tested, and broken.

Two of the technical indicators – MACD and Slow stochastic – are in bearish zones. RSI is attempting to cross above its 50% level and enter its bullish zone. Any rally will present a selling opportunity to bears.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), silver’s price is trading below its three weekly EMAs in a long-term bear market. MACD and RSI remain in bearish zones. Slow stochastic is at its 50% level. Silver’s price may drop below 14.

Trading strategy for 7th January 2015

                  The market soon after opening yesterday continued to drift lower as investors hammered stocks across board on global cues over crisis in Greece and falling oil prices plunging below USD 50 per barrel mark amid fears of a global supply glut. The Sensex ended at 26987 down by 854 points after slipping to a low of 26937 while the Nifty ended at 8127, down by 251 points. The market breadth remained weak as 719 shares advanced while 2316 declined. Readers are advised to trade with caution.

NIFTY FUTURE (Last close 8157.90)

The counter after flat opening yesterday failed to hold on to the opening levels and witnessed across the board hammering and short selling in front line stocks on weak global cues. The counter finally closed losing a whopping 264 points. The counter having slipped below its intermediate weekly support may find fresh support at 8116.25 which if breached decisively with volumes then it may further slide to 8098/8077. Strong resistance for the counter exists at 8179.75 which if crossed with volumes then it may move up to 8202/8231.

BANK NIFTY FUTURE (Last close 18521.55)

The counter after weak opening yesterday continued to drift lower as the session progressed on across the board selling in front line banking stocks. The counter finally closed losing a whopping 628 points. The counter having slipped below its weekly support may find fresh support at 18433.25 which if breached decisively with volumes then it may slide further to 18384/18338. Strong resistance for the counter exists at 18598.75 which if crossed with volumes then it may move up to 18643/18689.

Trading strategy for 6th January 2015

The market after flat opening yesterday closed lower snapping six-day winning streak with the Sensex closing at 27842 shedding 45 points while the Nifty ended at 8378, down by 17 points led by losses in tech and IT stocks ahead of INFY Q3 results this Friday. The market breadth remained positive as 1617 stocks advanced while 1490 declined. Readers are advised to trade with caution keeping stock specific approach.

NIFTY FUTURE (Last close 8422.85)
The counter after flat opening yesterday surged to session high of 8492 in morning trades but failed to sustain at higher levels and drifted lower as the session progressed and finally closed with marginal loss of 35 points. The counter to gain strength needs to trade and remain above 8449.75 whereby it may move up to 8468/8484. Strong support for the counter exists at 8400.25 which if breached decisively with volumes then it may slide to 8378/8363.

BANK NIFTY FUTURE (Last close 19150.15)
The counter after positive opening yesterday made a high of 19281 in morning trades but failed to sustain at higher levels and drifted lower as the session progressed and finally closed with marginal loss of 67 points. The counter to gain strength needs to trade and remain above 19202.75 whereby it may move up to 19253/19308. Strong support for the counter exists at 19097.25 which if breached decisively with volumes then it may slide to 19039/18991.

ITC FUTURE (Last close 371.70)
The stock after consolidating during the past sessions closed yesterday near its weekly buy signal with moderate volumes gaining marginally. The stock appears positive on charts and may move up to 374/376 on volume trading. Strong support for the stock exists at 369.50.

HERO MOTO FUTURE (Last close 3135.20)
The stock after consolidating during the past sessions closed yesterday above its weekly buy signal with moderate volumes gaining marginally. The stock appears positive on charts and may move up to 3149/3160 on volume trading. Strong support for the stock exists at 3126.25.

Bank Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis

Bank Nifty Hourly

Bank Nifty hourly chart will breakout above 19100 for target of 19800/20000.

Bank Nifty Hourly  EW Daily

Hourly Elliot wave analysis is shown,19166 will play crucial role next week.

Bank Nifty EW Daily

This is what we discussed last week Long term Elliot wave is drawn on Bank Nifty which gives target of 19819, so dips till 18000/17800 should be bought into.

Bank Nifty made low of 17504 and zoomed up 1500 points.

 Bank Nifty Daily Bias

Bank Nifty daily bias has shown an ascending triangle breakout signifying a bullish breakout. Target of the breakout comes around 20K

Bank Nifty Gann Dates

As per time analysis 09 Jan  is Gann Turn date , except a impulsive around this date.

Fibonacci technique

Fibonacci Fans

Bank nifty took support@ Fibo fan line suggesting still in buy on dips mode. Now break of 19200 will suggests more  new highs are coming.

Bank Nifty Weekly

Bank Nifty Weekly chart took support at middle of  AF line and harmonic pattern suggests still its in buy on dips mode.Break of 19200 will suggest bank nifty can move up and form new life high.Bank Nifty has moved in positive quadrant.

Bank Nifty Monthly

This is what we discussed in last analysis Bank Nifty in current correction took support@ 200% channel which is extremely bullish in short term. Holding the same Bank nifty can approach to make a new life highs.

 Bank Nifty Weekly Chopad Levels

Bank Nifty Trend Deciding Level:19076

Bank Nifty Resistance:19206,19446,19596

Bank Nifty Support:18946,18816,18686

Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis

Last week we did not share any weekly analysis, As per Historical data Important Swing low and high are formed in 1 week of January so keep a close eye on Nifty price action in coming week. Infosys results will be declared on 9 Jan, this time the timings have changed to 12:30 PM. Lets analyze how to trade Nifty in coming week.

 Nifty Hourly Chart

Nifty Hourly charts is approaching its trendline resistance @8410/420 crossing the same the up move will continue till 8484/8530 else we might /see pullback again towards 8350/8280 odd levels.

 Nifty Hourly Elliot Wave Chart

Elliot wave chart  on Hourly is shown above suggesting upmove can continue further and 8480/8550 will decide further course of action.

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty daily chart with Gann Box is shown above. Its heading towards green line resistance  of gann box, crossing the same up move continues  till 8500/8550, strong support @ blue line cmp@8351..

 Nifty Ichimoku Kinko Hyo

Nifty Ichimoku Kinko Hyo has also generated a buy singal

Nifty Daily Elliot Wave Chart

As per EW more legs are left to the rally use dips to take exposure to quality large and mid caps stocks.

Nifty Gann Date

As per time analysis 06 Jan is Gann Turn date , except a impulsive around this date.

Nifty Gann Emblem

 

16 Jan are very important date as per Gann Embelm.

 Nifty Gaps

For Nifty traders who follow gap trading there are 7 trade gaps in the range of  7000-7800

• 7067-7014
• 7130-7121
• 7276-7293
• 7229-7239
• 7454-7459
• 7526-7532
• 7598-7568
• 7625-7654
• 7780-7856
• 7927-7974
• 8029-8084
• 8159-8208
• 8284-8288

Fibonacci technique

Fibonacci fan

Nifty took exact support @ gann fan and now entering the resistance zone in range of 8420/8440

 Fibonacci Retracement

Crossed in 61.8% retracement of fall from 8628-7961 hence bullish in short term,follow upmove is required above 8420 for further confirmation.

Nifty Weekly Chart

It was positive week, with the Nifty up by 194  points  closing @8395 forming a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern and trading in its uptrending channel . Weekly time frame as per Harmonic suggests Nifty is still in buy on dips mode . Nifty started the new time cycle with a positive week. Jan 5-6 are important dates as per time analysis hence price action needs to be closely watched.

 

Trading Monthly charts

2 Monthly candels are compared in above chart, if historical price action is to be repeated expect a bullish January.

 Nifty Weekly Chopad Levels

Nifty Trend Deciding Level:8416

Nifty Resistance:8465,8546,8627

Nifty Support:8340,8285,8214

Trading strategy for 2nd January 2015

The market after flat opening yesterday moved in a choppy fashion amid thin trade throughout the session and finally closed with the Sensex at 27507, up by 8 points while the Nifty ended at 8283, up by 1 point. Capital goods, PSU, auto stocks among others ended with gain while healthcare and FMCG sector stocks lost. The market breadth remained positive as 1898 stocks advanced while 1036 declined. Readers are advised to trade with caution keeping stock specific approach.

NIFTY FUTURE (Last close 8343.80)
The counter after flat opening yesterday remained range bound throughout the session amid moderate volatility and finally closed with marginal gain of 5 points. The counter to retain its up move needs to trade and remain above 8359.75 whereby it may move up to 8375/8392. Strong support for the counter exists at 8325.25 which if breached decisively with volumes then it may slide to 8303/8287.

BANK NIFTY FUTURE (Last close 18904.20)
The counter after weak opening yesterday moved range bound with moderate volatility throughout the session and finally closed flat. The counter may move up to 18952/18988 on positive opening. Strong support for the counter exists at 18856.25 which if breached decisively with volumes then it may slide to 18819/18777.

ACC FUTURE (Last close 1414.75)
The stock after consolidating during the early part of the week closed yesterday above its weekly buy signal with moderate volumes gaining marginally. The stock appears positive on charts and may move up to 1422/1429 on volume trading. Strong support for the stock exists at 1407.25.

L & T FUTURE (Last close 1514.70)
The stock after consolidating during the early part of the week closed yesterday above its weekly buy signal with moderate volumes gaining marginally. The stock appears positive on charts and may move up to 1520/1527 on volume trading. Strong support for the stock exists at 1507.25.