Pre-market Future Call ( Intraday) 1 / 9 / 2014

Nifty ( Spot ) : The crucial support for the Nifty is at 7900 – 7850 – 7800  and the resistance is at  8035 – 8075

Pre-market Future Call ( Intraday) :

LT  —  Buy above 1541  StopLoss 1530 Target 1551 , 1559

          Short Sell below 1530  StopLoss 1541 Target 1519 , 1512

HDFCBANK  — Buy above 856  StopLoss 848  Target  864 , 859

           Short Sell below 848  StopLoss 856 Target 839 , 834

RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA FIRM HAS NIFTY TARGET 10500 …..

My dear Investors recently in a televised interview the most trusted analyst of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala firm Rare enterprises predicted that nifty will touch 10500 by June 2015. This is what we are saying since when Nifty was at 4500 that Indian MARKETS has only one way to go that is up,up and up.

STOCK markets need few things to trade in profit zone. Most important is stable political scenario and willing government. Now political situation worldwide are relatively stable.Economic data worldwide are showing sign of improvement.Micro economic data showing pick-up in economic activity.

However Indian MARKET is its own unchartered territory. MODI miracle is showing in the business world and in markets. FII and HNI are building huge positions.Our research desk has analysed tons of micro economic data data and quarterly results.The late progress in Monsoon and the ensuing festive season will boost the internal demand and economic activity.Last but not the least we will touch the newer sky soon.

The last battle will be fought at 8000 where both BULLS and BEARS will fight to the finish.Now Sgx Nifty after making a high of 8044 settled at 8013.This indicates that the sunny days are ahead. Any close above 8040 will prompt BEARS to run for the cover. Take my words 2014 and 2015 will be the year of BULLS they will not let the bears walk away easily. As we are saying during the last few days forget the direction of the MARKET and focus on the midcap space.As our research team is to be believed there are plenty of midcaps ripe to flare up. We use this volatility to pick our targeted midcaps at our desired price.Last but not the least come subscribe & profit.

Trading strategy for 28th August 2014

The MARKET after positive opening yesterday moved range bound throughout the session with moderate volatility ahead of August F&O expiry and finally closed continuing its gaining streak for fourth day with the Sensex at 26560, up by 117 points while the Nifty ended at 7936 gaining 31 points. Select auto, banking and oil & gas STOCKS among other closed firm on buying interest. The MARKET breadth remained positive as 1668 STOCKS advanced while 1445 declined. The market may remain volatile ahead of F&O expiry. Readers are advised to trade with caution keeping STOCK specific approach.

NIFTY FUTURE (Last close 7931.60)
The counter after positive opening yesterday moved range bound with moderate volatility throughout the session ahead of F&O expiry and finally closed gaining 25 points. The counter may move further up to 7949/7965 on positive opening. Strong support for the counter exists at 7913.25 which if breached decisively with volumes then it may slide to 7894/7875.

BANK NIFTY FUTURE (Last close 15713.60)
The counter after strong opening yesterday moved with positive bias throughout the session with moderate volatility and finally closed gaining 69 points. The counter to retain its up move needs to TRADE and remain above 15744.75 whereby it may move up to 15781/15823. Strong support for the counter exists at 15683.25 which if breached decisively with volumes then it may slide to 15645/15589.

PTC FUTURE (Last close 86.80)
The stock after consolidating during the past sessions closed yesterday above its weekly buy signal with moderate volumes gaining over 1/1/2%. The stock appears positive on charts and may move up to 88.50/90 on volume trading. Strong support for the stock exists at 85.00.

TATA COMM FUTURE (Last close 360.75)
The stock after consolidating during the past sessions closed yesterday near its weekly resistance with moderate volumes gaining over 1/1/2%. The stock appears positive on charts and may move up to 364/366 on volume trading. Strong support for the stock exists at 257.00.

WTI and Brent Crude Oil charts: an update

WTI Crude chart

The 6 months daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude oil tried to stabilise around the 97-98 level, where it had previously received support in Mar ‘14. But bear selling put paid to bullish hopes. Oil’s price plummeted to the 93 level. The 50 day EMA crossed below the 200 day EMA, technically confirming a bear market.

Is it ‘game over’ for bulls? As they say: Every dark cloud has a silver lining. Note that oil’s price closed at its lowest level since Jan ‘14, but RSI and Slow stochastic have touched higher bottoms. The positive divergences can lead to an upward bounce. But bears are unlikely to release their control in a hurry.

There is a support zone between 90-92. If oil’s price falls below 90, it can drop to 85. Daily technical indicators are looking oversold. But in a bear market, oversold conditions can continue for a while.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil’s price has closed below its 200 week EMA for the first time since Dec ‘12. Weekly technical indicators are looking 

oversold. The 50 week EMA and the 20 week EMA have merged together and are falling towards the 200 week EMA. Some more correction correction can’t be ruled out.

Brent Crude chart

The following remarks were made in the previous post on the 6 months daily bar chart pattern of Brent Crude oil: “The ‘death cross’ of the 50 day EMA below the 200 day EMA has technically confirmed a bear MARKET. All attempts at rallies are getting thwarted by the falling 20 day EMA.”

The falling 20 day EMA has continued to provide resistance to any attempt to rally. Oil’s price has bounced up a bit from the long-term support zone between 100-102. But it has been a weak bounce that will likely attract bear selling.

Daily technical indicators have corrected oversold conditions, but remain in bearish zones. MACD is touching its signal line at the edge of its oversold zone. RSI is moving sideways below its 50% level. Slow stochastic has emerged from its oversold zone. There are no signs of respite for the bulls.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil’s price has closed below its 200 week EMA for the second week in a row – some thing it has not done in the past 3 years. Weekly technical indicators are looking bearish, and a bit oversold. The long-term bull MARKET is under threat.

S&P 500, FTSE 100 charts: back in bull territories after corrections

S&P 500 Index Chart

The 6 months daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500 shook off the bears by soaring past the 1960 level, and rose to touch new intra-day (1995) and closing (1992) highs on Thu Aug 21, before correcting a bit by the end of the week. By moving above its previous top of 1991 – touched on Jul 24 – the bulls seem to have regained complete control. Or, have they?

Volumes during the week’s rally were below the 6 months average. The index has moved too sharply above its 20 day moving average. All three technical indicators are showing negative divergences by failing to touch new highs with the index. These have bearish implications in the near term.

Also, by touching a marginally higher top on lower volumes (than on Jul 24), the possibility of a double-top reversal pattern has opened up. The double-top will get confirmed only if the index falls below its Aug 7 low of 1905. That may not happen – but forewarned is forearmed.

Daily technical indicators are in bullish zones, with the exception of Slow stochastic, which has reached overbought levels. The index is TRADING above all three EMAs in a bull MARKET. The 4.3% correction from the Jul 24 top of 1991 was just a bull market correction. But it is better to be a little cautious than euphoric when the index is near a lifetime high.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index is trading above all three weekly EMAs in a long-term bull market. Weekly technical indicators are in bullish zones but showing negative divergences by failing to touch new highs with the index. Sliding volumes is another concern for bulls. Booking part profits may be a good idea.

FTSE 100 Index Chart

The 6 months daily bar chart pattern of FTSE 100 closed above its three EMAs in bull territory on all 5 days of the week, but was unable to make much upward progress. By failing to cross above its previous top of 6834, the bearish pattern of ‘lower tops and lower bottoms’ continue.

Technically, the index is in a bull MARKET. Daily technical indicators are looking bullish. MACD has risen above its signal line into positive territory. RSI has climbed above its 50% level. Slow stochastic has entered its overbought zone.

The index appears to be forming a bullish ‘flag’ pattern. A likely upward break out from the ‘flag’ may take the index to a new high.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index is TRADING above all three weekly EMAs in a long-term bull market. Weekly technical indicators are turning bullish.

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR 2014 & 2015 ….

Stock MARKETS need few things to TRADE in profit zone. Most important is stable political scenario and willing government. Now political situation worldwide are relatively stable. World over Governments are more than willing to fix problems like RUSSIA . Economic data worldwide are showing sign of improvement. Dollar index is also showing signs of fatigue around 82-83. Micro economic data showing pick-up in economic activity.

However Indian MARKET is its own unchartered territory. MODI miracle is showing in the business world and in markets. Our research desk has analysed tons of data like Two wheeler,cement and sector wise results yesterday.The late progress in Monsoon and the ensuing festive season will boost the internal demand and economic activity.

The last battle will be fought at 8000 where both BULLS and BEARS will fight to the finish. Any close above 8040 will prompt BEARS to run for the cover. Take my words 2014 and 2015 will be the year of BULLS they will not let the bears walk away easily. As we are saying during the last few days forget the direction of the market and focus on the midcap space.As our research team is to be believed there are plenty of midcaps ripe to flare up. We use this volatility to pick our targeted midcaps at our desired price.Last but not the least come subscribe & profit.

How to select good mid-cap and small-cap stocks for your portfolio without trying too hard

We are living in an age of instant gratification. No one has the time or patience to brew a nice cup of filter coffee. Too much hassle. Just go to the nearest coffee bar and pay through your nose; or, boil a cup of water and stir some instant coffee in it.

Want to buy a car? No need to save MONEY for 10-15 years. Just go to a car dealer, show your income statement or tax return, pay a token lump sum amount and drive out in a shining new 4-wheeler, and then pay nearly double the cost of the car through monthly EMIs.

Want to enter the STOCK market? Just open a demat account and a TRADING account with a large broker or bank, and start buying the next Infosys and the next L&T being discussed in stock forums or business TV channels. Instant gratification doesn’t quite work in this case, does it? Where are the huge returns that every one seems to talk about?

Instant gratification usually ends up costing you much more – in terms of money, health, stress. If you are really interested in fabulous returns from the stock market, there is only one way out. Learning to do things the proper way – which means spending time and being disciplined and patient. Easier said than done for most people, who work hard, live fast and prefer to go for vacations at Langkawi or Nice.

If you neither have the time, nor the inclination to learn how to select good STOCKS – a process that requires learning how to read an Annual Report, calculating financial ratios, studying economic conditions in the country and overseas, supply and demand in various industrial and service sectors, and observing different patterns on price charts – here is a simpler process.

Select the top-ranked (by 5 yr returns) mid-cap and small-cap FUNDS listed at valueresearchonline.com and check their top 10 equity holdings. The hard work has already been done for you. Just go through the table below.

Religare Invesco Mid N Small Cap	BNP Paribas Midcap	Franklin India Smaller Companies	ICICI Prudential Value Discovery
Brittania	VA Tech Wabag	Finolex Cables	ICICI Bank
DB Corp	Idea Cellular	Yes Bank	Reliance Ind
Gateway Distripark	Axis Bank	Repco Home Fin	Sadbhav Engg
ING Vysya Bank	HPCL	JK Lakshmi Cement	PI Industries
Federal Bank	Yes Bank	Mindtree	Exide
Redington	IndusInd Bank	Cyient	Mindtree
Guj Pipavav Port	OIL India	Amara Raja	Amara Raja
City Union Bank	Alembic Pharma	SKF India	Guj Pipavav Port
AIA Engineering	Orient Cement	Axis Bank	Balkrishna Ind
Greaves Cotton	Motherson Sumi	Aegis Logistics	Max India

Leaving aside a few large-caps like ICICI Bank and Reliance Ind, the rest are a representative sample of good mid-cap and small-cap stocks. So, here are two things you can do:

1) Select a few stocks from the four FUNDS and add them to your portfolio. Choose the ones whose businesses you understand to a certain extent. Alternatively, choose stocks that are appearing in more than one fund – like Amara Raja, Mindtree, Axis Bank and Yes Bank.

2) If you are really pressed for time (or lazy), start a SIP in any one of the four FUNDS. Each of these funds has returned about 25% for the past 5 years. That indicates a consistency of performance over the long-term.

Bank Nifty Weekly Analysis for Aug F&O expiry

Bank Nifty Hourly

Bank Nifty hourly charts has given a breakout now the resistance of 15750 will become an important support.Negative divergence are visible in hourly charts but price confirmation is required.

 Bank Nifty Hourly Elliot Wave

Bank Nifty hourly EW is shows short term top can form in range of 15900-15950 and a short term pullback can be seen.

Bank Nifty Daily

Bank Nifty daily has given a textbook style breakout, next 3 days are very important as they will confirm whether its a valid breakout or a false one.  15750 is the pivotal of the breakout, any close below this level its a failed breakout.

Bank Nifty is forming triangle on daily chart rangebound moves will be seen in range of 14800-15200 till breakout/breakdown happens

Bank Nifty Gann Dates

25-Aug is Gann turn date for Bank Nifty

Fibonacci technique

Fibonacci fan

Bank Nifty approaching the resistance line of Fibo Fan, unable to close above it will lead to correction else uptrend continues.

 Bank Nifty Weekly

Bank Nifty Weekly chart as per Andrew Pitchfork again made an attempt to cross the AF line but unable to do so, This week 15850-15900 needs to be watched closely on weekly basis,  unable to close above it we can see a pullback like last time we saw BN turned after touching AF. Very interesting TRADING days ahead.

Bank Nifty Monthly

Bank Nifty is also approaching the trendline and we have Expiry, Weekly and Monthly closing all on 28 August so very interesting TRADING week coming ahead.

         Bank Nifty Weekly Chopad Levels

Bank Nifty Trend Deciding Level:15826

Bank Nifty Resistance:15956,16086,16216

Bank Nifty Support:15696,15436 and 15306

Nifty ready for Big move, FII Data Analysis

• FII’s bought 7  K contract of Index Future worth 276 cores, 2.7 K Long contract were added and 4.2 K short contracts  were squared off by FII’s. Net Open Interest decreased  by 1.4 K contract , so FII are going long ans squaring off shorts in Index Futures.From start of series net on net basis  FII are holding 1.3 K Index longs and 22.1 K Index shorts. So still there bias is on downside.

• Nifty did a fresh life high today @ 7922,Nifty has rallied 382  points in 8 TRADING session and formed a bearish engulfing pattern today, Also on hourly charts broke the channel bottom after 8 TRADING sessions, which gives initial target of 7800-7784. Als0 EW chart also gives the same target. This all levels get invalidated if Nifty starts trading above 7922 for 1 hour than it can rally till 7960. Next 2 days very crucial and a big move is round the corner.

TRADES who follow Wolf Wave , a bearish Wolf wave is forming in Nifty giving Initial target of 7400.

• Nifty Future Aug Open Interest Volume is at 1.50 cores with liquidation of 1.5 lakh suggesting long liquidation .VIX being very low suggests bulls are still overconfident and every dip is getting bought into.
  

• Total Future & OPTION TRADING volume was   at 1.66  lakh core with total contract traded at 1.3  lakh lowest volume in NF since Feb 2014. PCR @1.04.

• 8000  CE  OI at 87.8 lakh  suggesting wall of resistance , 7800 CE  liquidated 2.3 lakh  suggesting bears got panicked today .7700/7600 CE saw 1.2 lakh  liquidation so bears are losing there ground, 7900 CE added 0.75 lakh suggesting bears are making resistance on 7900 . FII’s bought 1.2 K CE longs and 3 K  CE were shorted  by   them.
  

• 7700 PE OI@ 77.2 lakhs so strong base @ 7700. 7800 PE liquidated 3 lakh in OI, Break of 7800 can bring panic in bull camp .FII’s bought 5  K contract  PE longs and 5.8 K PE were  shorted  by them.

• FII’s bought 251 cores in Equity and DII bought 481 cores in cash segment.INR closed at 60.61.

• Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 7895(For Intraday TRADERS). NF Trend Changer Level (Positional TRADERS) 7742 and BNF Trend Changer Level (Positional Traders) 15204 
• .How to trade Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures as per Trend Changer Level . 
  

        Buy above 7888 Tgt 7910,7922 and 7946  (Nifty Spot Levels)

        Sell below 7870 Tgt 7852, 7828 and 7793 (Nifty Spot Levels)