FII’s bought 20.8 K contract of Index Future worth 587 cores,21.5 K Long contract were added by FII’s and 0.06 K short contracts were added by FII’s. Net Open Interest increased by 22.2 K contract. Qualities which define a Successful Traders we discussed qualities of trader, implement these qualities in your trading.
This is what we discussed yesterday Nifty after 7 days of decline showed a rise of 150 points, Nifty closed above the last swing low of 8470 and is now entering the difficult resistance zone of 8535-8555 where we have trendline resistance,pyrapoint resistance and also 100 SMA. Price action in this zone will suggest the further course of action. Also as per gunner chart, we are heading towards important gann line support and green arc.Nifty formed high of 8550 and corrected almost 100 points from the highs. Gunner chart was very helpful as it hit the green arc and the red line and started correcting. High of 8550 if not captured in next 2 days can see correcting itself towards the low of 8380/8300 and forming a new swing low. We have 6 straight quarter of rise as seen in below quarterly chart so cautious advised in next quarter.
Nifty April Future Open Interest Volume is at 1.95 core with liquidation of 6 lakhs with decrease in cost of carry suggesting long position got closed in today volatile market..
Total Future & Option trading volume was at 1.60 core with total contract traded at 3.9 lakh. PCR @0.94, NF premium has come down to 43 points from 130 points in just 3 trading sessions.
BULLS JUMP ABOVE 8533 AND TEST 8550, BUT NOT ABLE TO SUSTAIN ABOVE 8533, SLIP BELOW 8500 AND NIFTY CLOSES FLAT AT 8491,
NOW BIG RESISTANCE PLACED AT 8533-55 LEVEL, ABOVE 8555 BULLS MOVE FURTHER MORE UPSIDE, IF BULLS FAILS TO JUMP ABOVE 8555 THEN FOLLOWING PATTERN TARGET WILL BE TESTED BY BEARS,
THE HIGH ON 30/01 WAS 8996, THE LOW ON 10/02 WAS 8470, AGAIN THE HIGH ON 04/03 WAS 9119, THIS IS A DOUBLE BOTTOM PATTERN, BELOW 8472, (9119-8470=649) (8470-649=7821) THIS PATTERN HAVE THE TARGET AT 7821,
AS PER TECHNICAL, NOW THE WEEKLY PIVOT IS 8422, ABOVE 8466 BULLS CAN TARGET 8600 AND 8688, BELOW 8377 BEARS CAN TARGET 8244 AND 8155,
Buy Infinite Computer with a target of Rs 265: Ashwani Gujral
'Infinite Computer is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 265 and a stop loss of Rs 246'
Buy BPCL with a target of Rs 825: Ashwani Gujral
'BPCL is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 825 and a stop loss of Rs 790'
Buy Motherson Sumi with a target of Rs 532: Ashwani Gujral
'Motherson Sumi is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 532 and a stop loss of Rs 500.'
Buy Tata Investment with a target of Rs 600: Prakash Gaba
'Tata Investment is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 600 and a stop loss of Rs 560'
Buy Monsanto India with a target of Rs 3,100: Prakash Gaba
'Monsanto India is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 3,100 and a stop loss of Rs 2,860'
BULLS OPEN WITH A GAP UP, GLOBAL TRENDS AND SHORT COVERING LIFT NIFTY ABOVE 8500 AND NIFTY CLOSES AT 8492,
THE TREND LINE RESISTANCE PLACED AT 8511-33 LEVEL, ABOVE 8533 BULLS MOVE FURTHER MORE UPSIDE, IF BULLS FAILS TO JUMP ABOVE 8533 THEN FOLLOWING PATTERN TARGET WILL BE TESTED BY BEARS,
THE HIGH ON 30/01 WAS 8996, THE LOW ON 10/02 WAS 8470, AGAIN THE HIGH ON 04/03 WAS 9119, THIS IS A DOUBLE BOTTOM PATTERN, BELOW 8472, (9119-8470=649) (8470-649=7821) THIS PATTERN HAVE THE TARGET AT 7821,
AS PER TECHNICAL, NOW THE WEEKLY PIVOT IS 8422, ABOVE 8466 BULLS CAN TARGET 8600 AND 8688, BELOW 8377 BEARS CAN TARGET 8244 AND 8155,
Buy PFS with a target of Rs 64: Ashwani Gujral
'PFS is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 64 and a stop loss of Rs 50'
Buy Bajaj Electricals with a target of Rs 245: Mitesh Thacker
'Bajaj Electricals is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 245 and a stop loss of Rs 218'
Buy Century Textiles with a target of Rs 676: Mitesh Thacker
Century Textiles is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 676 and a stop loss of Rs 614.
Buy HSIL with a target of Rs 490: Mitesh Thacker
'HSIL is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 490 and a stop loss of Rs 439'
Buy Ashok Leyland with a target of Rs 80: Prakash Gaba
'Ashok Leyland is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 80 and a stop loss of Rs 71'
Buy Gabriel India with a target of Rs 90: Prakash Gaba
'Gabriel India is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 90 and a stop loss of Rs 79'
Sell Tech Mahindra with a target of Rs 591: Sandeep Wagle
'Tech Mahindra is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 591 and a stop loss of Rs 632'
Buy Motherson Sumi with a target of Rs 509: Sandeep Wagle
'Motherson Sumi is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 509 and a stop loss of Rs 480'
When there is gloom, doom every where everything is taken with pre-biased negative opinion forgetting that boom is the next stop. This is what 150 point strong Nifty rally showed today.over the weekend every blue channel and analyst were shouting from the roof top to sell, sell and sell with scary targets for nifty.
Now most of the investors missed the 150 point strong rally today and what lies ahead is the million dollar question….?. At this time US market is up 250 and Germany is up 190.
My dear investors making mistake is the part and parcel of investing life. The more damaging is to justify the mistake with imaginary reasons. The simple solution is to learn from the mistake. But the most important thing to make money in the stock market is to realize and accept the mistake. Rest is up to you to decide which your place is.
Common sense if watching blue channels and following technical tools can make money INDIA could have 125 crore billionaires. In stock market huge money can be made by smart money following macro events which predict the future in 100% perfection.Stock market usually provides best investing opportunity when there is fear in the air.
We have the best opportunity in 2015-16 as most of the correction seems to over. So fasten your seat belts for a profitable ride ahead….
FOR DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK & CALLS visit our site daily
GLOBAL TRENDS GETTING BEARISH, YEMEN CRISIS HITTING THE MARKETS, NIFTY PLUNGE TO 8325 AND CLOSES AT 8342,
AS POSTED HERE ON YESTERDAY, THE 8511-33 LEVEL GIVING GOOD SUPPORT, NIFTY TAKE AWAY ABOVE SUPPORT BY A GAP DOWN, AND NEXT SUPPORT PLACED AT 8422 ALSO TAKEN,
THE HIGH ON 30/01 WAS 8996, THE LOW ON 10/02 WAS 8472, AGAIN THE HIGH ON 04/03 WAS 9117, THIS IS A DOUBLE BOTTOM PATTERN, BELOW 8472, (9117-8472=645) (8472-645=7828) THIS PATTERN HAVE THE TARGET AT 7828,
NOW THE WEEKLY PIVOT SLIP DOWN TO 8511, ALL THE CLOSES BELOW 8511 ARE BEARS AREA, BULLS HAVE TO SEE CLOSE ABOVE 8555 TO GET THE CONTROL,
AS PER TECHNICAL, NOW THE WEEKLY PIVOT IS 8511, ABOVE 8555 BULLS CAN TARGET 8688 AND 8777, BELOW 8466 BEARS CAN TARGET 8333 AND 8244,
Sell Aurobindo Pharma with a target of Rs 1,100: Ashwani Gujral
'Aurobindo Pharma is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 1,100 and a stop loss of Rs 1,160'
Sell Tata Steel with a target of Rs 308: Ashwani Gujral
'Tata Steel is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 308 and a stop loss of Rs 325'
Buy Cipla with a target of Rs 735: Ashwani Gujral
'Cipla is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 735 and a stop loss of Rs 700'
Sell Tata Motors DVR with a target of Rs 297: Sandeep Wagle
'Tata Motors DVR is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 297 and a stop loss of Rs 315.50'
Sell TCS with a target of Rs 2,430: Sandeep Wagle
'TCS is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 2,430 and a stop loss of Rs 2,570'
BULLS ARE NOT ABLE TO SUSTAIN ABOVE 8600,
NIFTY CLOSES AT 8550,
NOW 8600-22 LEVEL ACTING AS RESISTANCE,
AS POSTED HERE,
BEARS SEE A WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 8600,
SO THE BIG SUPPORT AT 8600-22 LEVEL IS TAKEN,
THE NEXT SUPPORT IS AT 8422-44 LEVEL,
BEARS HAVE BIG TARGETS BELOW 8422,
THE HIGH ON 30/01 WAS 8996,
THE LOW ON 10/02 WAS 8472,
AGAIN THE HIGH ON 04/03 WAS 9117,
THIS IS A DOUBLE BOTTOM PATTERN,
BELOW 8472, (9117-8472=645) (8472-645=7828)
THIS PATTERN HAVE THE TARGET AT 7828,
NOW THE WEEKLY PIVOT SLIP DOWN TO 8644,
ALL THE CLOSES BELOW 8644 ARE BEARS AREA,
BULLS HAVE TO SEE CLOSE ABOVE 8644
AND A CLOSE ABOVE 8688 TO GET THE CONTROL,
AS PER TECHNICAL,
NOW THE WEEKLY PIVOT IS 8644,
ABOVE 8688 BULLS CAN TARGET 8822 AND 8911,
BELOW 8600 BEARS CAN TARGET 8466 AND 8377,
Buy Jindal Stainless with a target of 48: Ashwani Gujral
'Jindal Stainless is a 'BUY' with a target of 48 and a stop loss of Rs 36'
Sell ICICI Bank with a target of Rs 304: Sandeep Wagle
'ICICI Bank is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 304 and a stop loss of Rs 320'
Sell PTC India with a target of Rs 68.50: Sandeep Wagle
'PTC India a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 68.50 and a stop loss of Rs 79'
Buy Century Textiles with a target of Rs 587: Sandeep Wagle
'Century Textiles is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 587 and a stop loss of Rs 568'
Sell Apollo Hospitals with a target of Rs 1,320: Sandeep Wagle
'Apollo Hospitalsis a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 1,320 and a stop loss of Rs 1,395'
BEARS SEE A WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 8600,
SO THE BIG SUPPORT AT 8600-22 LEVEL IS TAKEN,
THE NEXT SUPPORT IS AT 8422-44 LEVEL,
BEARS HAVE BIG TARGETS BELOW 8422,
THE HIGH ON 30/01 WAS 8996,
THE LOW ON 10/02 WAS 8472,
AGAIN THE HIGH ON 04/03 WAS 9117,
THIS IS A DOUBLE BOTTOM PATTERN,
BELOW 8472, (9117-8472=645) (8472-645=7828)
THIS PATTERN HAVE THE TARGET AT 7828,
NOW THE WEEKLY PIVOT SLIP DOWN TO 8644,
ALL THE CLOSES BELOW 8644 ARE BEARS AREA,
BULLS HAVE TO SEE CLOSE ABOVE 8644
AND A CLOSE ABOVE 8688 TO GET THE CONTROL,
AS PER TECHNICAL,
NOW THE WEEKLY PIVOT IS 8644,
ABOVE 8688 BULLS CAN TARGET 8822 AND 8911,
BELOW 8600 BEARS CAN TARGET 8466 AND 8377,
Sell Aditya Birla Nuvo with a target of Rs 1,615: Mitesh Thacker
'Aditya Birla Nuvo is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 1,615 and a stop loss of Rs 1,670'
Sell SKS Microfinance with a target of Rs 420: Mitesh Thacker
'SKS Microfinance is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 420 and a stop loss of Rs 443'
Sell M&M with a target of Rs 1,120: Ashwani Gujral
M&M is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 1,120 and a stop loss of Rs 1,190.
Sell BHEL with a target of Rs 235: Ashwani Gujral
'BHEL is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 235 and a stop loss of Rs 251'
BULLS STARTS THE DAY WITH A GAP UP,
TEST 8787 BUT NOT ABLE TO SUSTAIN,
SLIP DOWN AND DOWN,
NIFTY CLOSES AT 8634,
NOW THE BIG SUPPORT IS AT 8600-22 LEVEL,
AND THE RESISTANCE AT 8755-77 LEVEL,
FRIDAY WE HOPE NIFTY WILL TRADE BETWEEN
IN THE ABOVE RANGE,
AS PER ASTRO BIG NEGATIVE SEEN FROM MONDAY,
REST REMAIN SAME AS FOLLOWS,
LAST WEEK NIFTY CLOSES BELOW 8666,
THIS IS WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 8666,
THIS IS A CONFIRMATION OF REVERSAL,
ALSO THIS IS CONFIRMATION OF DOUBLE BOTTOM PATTERN,
THIS PATTERN HAVE THE TARGET AT 7821,
DOLLAR INDEX JUMPING ABOVE 100,
EQUITY MARKETS GETTING VOLATILE,
CRUDE AND GOLD ARE SLIPPING DOWN,
NOW THE WEEKLY PIVOT SLIP DOWN TO 8733,
ALL THE CLOSES BELOW 8733 ARE BEARS AREA,
THEY CAN TARGET 8555 AND 8466 IN THIS WEEK AHEAD,
BULLS HAVE TO SEE CLOSE ABOVE 8733 TO STOP THIS,
AND A CLOSE ABOVE 8777 WILL BRING MORE GREEN,
AS PER TECHNICAL,
NOW THE WEEKLY PIVOT IS 8733,
ABOVE 8777 BULLS CAN TARGET 8911 AND 9000,
BELOW 8688 BEARS CAN TARGET 8555 AND 8466,
Buy Lupin with a target of Rs 2,025: Sandeep Wagle
'Lupin is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 2,025 and a stop loss of Rs 1,938'
Buy M&M Financial with a target of Rs 280: Sandeep Wagle
'M&M Financial is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 280 and a stop loss of Rs 264'
Buy Titan with a target of Rs 424: Sandeep Wagle
'Titan is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 424 and a stop loss of Rs 407.'
Buy ICICI Bank with a target of Rs 350: Prakash Gaba
'ICICI Bank is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 350 and a stop loss of Rs 335'
Buy Glenmark Pharma with a target of Rs 870: Sandeep Wagle
'Glenmark Pharma is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 870 and a stop loss of Rs 840'
ANOTHER CHOPPY DAY,
BEARS HIT NIFTY AT ALL THE RISES,
8746 IS THE HIGH, AND
NIFTY CLOSES AT 8685,
GLOBAL TREND GETTING VOLATILE AHEAD
OF FED MOVE,
VOLATILE MOVES EXPECTED FOR ANOTHER
TWO DAYS,
REST REMAIN SAME AS FOLLOWS,
LAST WEEK NIFTY CLOSES BELOW 8666,
THIS IS WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 8666,
THIS IS A CONFIRMATION OF REVERSAL,
ALSO THIS IS CONFIRMATION OF DOUBLE BOTTOM PATTERN,
THIS PATTERN HAVE THE TARGET AT 7821,
DOLLAR INDEX JUMPING ABOVE 100,
EQUITY MARKETS GETTING VOLATILE,
CRUDE AND GOLD ARE SLIPPING DOWN,
NOW THE WEEKLY PIVOT SLIP DOWN TO 8733,
ALL THE CLOSES BELOW 8733 ARE BEARS AREA,
THEY CAN TARGET 8555 AND 8466 IN THIS WEEK AHEAD,
BULLS HAVE TO SEE CLOSE ABOVE 8733 TO STOP THIS,
AND A CLOSE ABOVE 8777 WILL BRING MORE GREEN,
AS PER TECHNICAL,
NOW THE WEEKLY PIVOT IS 8733,
ABOVE 8777 BULLS CAN TARGET 8911 AND 9000,
BELOW 8688 BEARS CAN TARGET 8555 AND 8466,
Sell Asian Paints with a target of Rs 800: Mitesh Thacker
'Asian Paints is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 800 and a stop loss of Rs 824'
Buy Biocon with a target of Rs 453: Mitesh Thacker
'Biocon is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 453 and a stop loss of Rs 434'
Sell ONGC with a target of Rs 285: Ashwani Gujral
'ONGC is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 285 and a stop loss of Rs 320'
Buy Gati with a target of Rs 256: Ashwani Gujral
'Gati is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 256 and a stop loss of Rs 230'
Buy MCX with a target of Rs 1,240: Ashwani Gujral
MCX is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 1240 and a stop loss of Rs 1160.
The daily bar chart pattern of goldtried
to cling on to the 1200 level for a few days, but the force of gravity
(i.e. bear selling) pulled it all the way down to 1150 – where it is
trying to find a temporary bottom.
All three technical
indicators are inside their respective oversold zones – which may lead
to an upward bounce. But this is not the time for bottom fishing. Bears
appear to have a stranglehold on the chart.
The next positive
trigger for gold bulls may be an expected interest rate increase by the
US Fed. No one really knows when that will happen.
On longer
term weekly chart (not shown), gold’s price closed well below its three
weekly EMAs in a long-term bear market. Technical indicators are in
bearish zones. The Nov ‘14 low is likely to be tested and breached.
The daily bar chart pattern of silver breached the support level at 16 and dropped below 15.50. It is trying to find an intermediate bottom at 15.50.
Daily
technical indicators are in the process of correcting oversold
conditions, but their upward momentum looks weak. MACD is inside its
oversold zone, but has stopped falling. RSI has bounced up from the edge
of its oversold zone. Slow stochastic has just emerged from its
oversold zone.
On longer term weekly chart (not shown), silver’s
price is trading below all three weekly EMAs in a long-term bear
market. Technical indicators are in bearish zones. A fall below 15 may
test the Dec ‘14 low.
The market after flat opening yesterday moved with moderate
volatility amid bouts of buying and selling throughout the session and
finally closed flat with marginal loss. The market witnessed sell off in
stocks of metal, Infra, FMCG among others while select IT, pharma,
reality and banking stocks rose on buying. The Sensex closed at 28437
down by 56 points while the Nifty ended at 8633 down by 14 points.
Meanwhile, WPI declined at a much faster than expected pace of 2.06% on
year in February, as government data showed yesterday. Readers are
advised to trade with caution keeping stock specific approach.
The counter after flat opening yesterday moved in a narrow range with
moderate volatility and finally closed with marginal loss. The counter
to gain strength needs to trade and remain above 8683.75 whereby it may
move up to 8703/8726. Strong support for the counter exists at 8648.25
which if breached decisively with volumes then it may slide to
8629/8604.
The counter
after flat opening yesterday moved in a choppy fashion throughout the
session hitting day’s high of 19040 in closing hours. The counter
finally closed with marginal gain of 88 points and may further move up
to 19055/19112 on positive opening. Strong support for the counter
exists at 18931.25 which if breached decisively with volumes then it may
slide to 18888/18813.
The
stock after consolidating during the past sessions closed yesterday
above its weekly buy signal with moderate volumes gaining about one
per-cent. The stock appears positive on charts and may move up to
171/173 on volume trading. Strong support for the stock exists at
165.25.
The stock after
consolidating during the past sessions closed yesterday above its weekly
buy signal with moderate volumes gaining over ½%. The stock appears
positive on charts and may move up to 173/175 on volume trading. Strong
support for the stock exists at 167.50.
So Nifty what next? its clearly visible according to propr trend its
sell on rise market. Very simple stop for this view is 8700 on closing
basis.
But avoid shorting at gap down or at lower levels, good sup
visible at lower levels, which may hold for very short term, as fall
may not be straight line.
Those who are still thinking positive
side, atleast follow this 8700 level, if nifty not able to close above
8700 immediately tomorrow, you need to change decision.
I suggest
wait for tomorrow close if nifty closes below 8630 tomorrow, its
confirmed weakness, can initiate positional shorts on tuesday in small
upmove.
But I strongly feel nifty will consolidate in range next week & eat premiums, so avoid options.
If
Nifty not able to close above 8700 this week, we need to assume nifty
is in serious trouble, and heading towards big fall in coming days.
All above mentioned levels are spot
Conclusion:
Can short nifty fut at 8690 & 8714, have total stop at 8745, take
profit at 8635, 8615, 8590. In case if nifty opened gap down tomorrow
wait patiently for rise.
The Indian stock market has been in a bull phase since Dec 2011.
Nifty had touched a low of 4531 on Dec 20 ‘11, and rose to touch a
lifetime high of 9119 on Mar 4 ‘15 – doubling in a little over 3 years.
Can
the market rise even higher? Sure it can. Can it double again in the
next 3 years? Anything is possible in the stock market – but the
probability will be low because of the higher base.
So,
expectations of making windfall gains should be moderated. Does that
mean that there are no multibaggers left in the market? The market
always provides opportunities – but investors need to be patient rather
than chase after the ‘next Infosys’ or the ‘next L&T’.
Making
huge gains is what motivates small investors to enter the stock market.
But more important than making huge gains is preserving capital. The
best way to do that is to avoid some common mistakes small investors
make near a market top.
Here are five of them:
1. Looking at the Sensex and Nifty levels on a daily basis
Sensex
and Nifty should be looked at for determining the long-term trend in
the market. An easy way to do that is to look at an index chart with the
200 day EMA superimposed on it. A rising 200 day EMA with the index
trading above it indicates a bull market. A falling 200 day EMA with the
index trading below it represents a bear market.
Unless you own
the 30 Sensex stocks or the 50 Nifty stocks, knowing the precise levels
of Sensex and Nifty are not of much consequence and induces needless
greed or fear. It is the performance of your portfolio that you need to
monitor. Your asset allocation plan should tell you which assets you
should buy or sell or hold.
Don’t have an asset allocation plan?
Better make one – otherwise your investment decisions will be based on
hearsay and gut-feel, which are sure tickets for disaster!
2. Selling in a panic if the market corrects 5-10%
There
is a tendency for stock markets to correct when indices hit levels with
several zeros in them, e.g. Sensex at 30000 or Nifty at 9000. Many
traders (and investors) prefer to sell (or buy) at such levels. Note how
call and put options are written at 7600 or 8800 – never at 7562 or
8793!
Corrections are part and parcel of a bull market.
Corrections of 5-10% are quite common. These should be taken in stride,
and in fact, welcomed as opportunities to add more. If you sell off in a
panic, you may either miss the next leg of the up move, or re-enter at
higher levels.
3. Getting swayed by economic and/or political news
Various
economic and political news – which may or may not affect the stock
market – flow into the market on a daily basis. Some companies win a few
coal blocks in the auction – their stock prices go up. The IIP number
is lower than expectations, the market falls.
The trick to avoid
getting influenced by news is to realise that the effect of most news
lasts 2 to 3 days at most. Things return to normal soon. It is the
actual performance of the companies you own (yes, you own a small
‘share’ of the company whose stock you purchase) that matter over the
longer term.
4. Buying ‘cheap’ stocks because the good stocks are ‘too expensive’
Regardless
of when you enter the market, good stocks will typically trade at a
premium. This is more so near a market top. If a stock is trading at a
‘cheap’ valuation, there is usually a very good reason for it to do so.
Remember that ‘cheap’ stocks have a tendency to get even ‘cheaper’ –
often just after you buy a large chunk of it!
If you are not an
expert stock picker, and are confused about which stocks to buy during
the ongoing correction in the market, choose a good diversified equity
fund or a balanced fund. And keep investing your surplus savings in the
fund regularly. After a few years, you will be amazed at the fortune you
have generated with very little effort.
5. Holding on to your losers in the hope of getting back your ‘buy price’
If
your portfolio has losers – don’t feel ashamed or blame your luck.
Despite careful selection processes, stocks fail to perform as per
expectations or lose money.
The big mistake – and this is
perhaps the biggest cause of loss for most small investors – is to keep
holding on to the losers in the hope of getting back your ‘buy price’.
If a stock is losing money near a market top, it is unlikely it will
ever make any money. Remember that the market doesn’t care about your
‘buy price’.
The best time to get rid of your losers is near a market top – when you may still find a buyer for them!
Expectations of a mid-year interest rate hike in the US propelled the
US Dollar to new highs against global currencies. ECB began its bond
buying (QE) programme with freshly printed money – further weakening the
Euro against the Dollar.
FIIs switched to ‘sell’ mode – their
net selling during the past two days was worth nearly Rs 1200 Crores.
DIIs seem confused – buying and selling on alternate days. Nifty broke
down below the bearish ‘rising wedge’ pattern (mentioned in an earlier post) within which it has been trading since the end of Jan ‘15.
The
coal block and telecom spectrum auctions appear to be going well for
the government. The large amounts raised should put a significant dent
on India’s fiscal deficit, and allow investments in much-needed
infrastructure projects.
The daily bar chart pattern of Nifty
dropped below the ‘wedge’ and the 20 day EMA, but has received good
support from the 50 day EMA so far. The support zone (marked by blue
dotted lines on chart) between 8180 and 8630 should provide stronger
support in case the index corrects some more.
An unscheduled 25
bps interest rate cut and a less-than-exciting budget has been already
‘discounted’ by the stock market. Q4 results - to be announced next
month - may continue the disappointing trend set by Q3 results. Any
positive triggers to boost bullish sentiments need to come from external
sources.
Daily technical indicators are looking bearish. MACD
is falling below its signal line in positive territory. ROC has dropped
inside negative zone. RSI is below its 50% level. Slow stochastic has
entered its oversold zone.
The index has corrected less than 5%
from its lifetime high of 9119 (touched on Mar 4 ‘15). Some more
correction is possible. Before you sell in a panic, remember that the
index is trading well above its rising 200 day EMA in a long-term bull
market. Periodic corrections have kept the chart ‘technically healthy’.
If
you have already booked partial profits, redeploy the proceeds in a
gilt fund or income fund instead of looking for new ideas near a market
top. In a falling interest rate regime, long-term debt funds ought to do
well – and also protect the downside.
BULL ARE NOT ABLE MOVE ABOVE 8777,
AGAIN BEARS DRIVE THE MARKET TO 8677,
AND NIFTY CLOSES AT 8712,
PIVOT PLACED AT 8844,
ALL THE CLOSES BELOW 8844 ARE BEARS AREA,
THEY CAN TARGET 8577 NOW,
A WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 8666 IS
A CONFIRMATION OF TREND REVERSAL,
BULLS HAVE TO SEE CLOSE ABOVE 8844 TO STOP THIS,
AND A CLOSE ABOVE 8888 WILL BRING MORE GREEN,
AS POSTED HERE,
MOMENTUM GETTING CONVERGENCE WITH PRICE,
NIFTY MAKING DOUBLE TOP PATTERN,
THE TARGET IF ABOVE PATTERN GET VALID IS 7821,
NIFTY MADE LOW 2252 IN OCTOBER 2008,
BULLS TEST 8996 ON 30/01/2015,
THIS IS 400% MOVE,
SO THE ULTIMATE TARGET IS 800% MOVE AT 18016,
BUT THIS IS TIME FOR CONSOLIDATION AND CORRECTION,
AS PER TECHNICAL,
NOW THE WEEKLY PIVOT IS 8844,
ABOVE 8888 BULLS CAN TARGET 9022 AND 9111,
BELOW 8800 BEARS CAN TARGET 8666 AND 8577,
Sell HDFC with a target of Rs 1,270: Sandeep Wagle
'HDFC is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 1,270 and a stop loss of Rs 1,335'
Sell Adani Enterprises with a target of Rs 635: Sandeep Wagle
Adani Enterprises is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 635 and a stop loss of Rs 656.
Sell JSW Energy with a target of Rs 105: Mitesh Thacker
JSW Energy is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 105 and a stop loss of Rs 114.
Buy Aurobindo Pharma with a target of Rs 1,178: Sandeep Wagle
'Aurobindo Pharma is a 'BUY' call with a target of Rs 1,178 and a stop loss of Rs 1,115'
Sell DLF with a target of Rs 136: Sandeep Wagle
'DLF is a 'SELL' call with a target of Rs 136 and a stop loss of Rs 151'
FII’s bought 37.9 K contract of Index Future worth 851 cores, 46.9 K
Long contract were added by FII’s and 8.9 K short contracts were
squared off by FII’s. Net Open Interest increased by 55.9 K contract.
Nifty formed another drajonfly doji
candlestick suggesting dips are getting bought into. Nifty is still
unable to break the hourly trendline resistance and also trading near
Fib0 fan trendline suggesting supply coming at higher levels.
Nifty March Future Open Interest Volume is at 2.65 core with
addition of 8.7 lakhs with decrease in cost of carry.NF premium has
comes down to 44 points with fall in IV’s of Options and VIX also
corrected 6%.
Total Future & Option trading volume was at 2.25 core with total contract traded at 11 lakh. PCR @0.86.
9000 CE OI at 54.1 lakh so wall of resistance @ 9000 .8700/8900
CE liquidated 3 lakhs, so no liquidation has started by bears. FII bought 51.9 K CE longs and 12.9 K shorted CE were by them.
8500 PE OI@ 41.4 lakhs so strong base @ 8500. 8600/8900 PE saw
addition of 23.1 lakhs so bulls have started adding aggressively. FII added 37 K PE longs and 3.8 K PE were shorted by them.
FII’s bought 424 cores in Equity and DII bought 180 cores in cash segment.INR closed at 61.85.
Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 8988(For Intraday Traders). NF Trend Changer Level (Positional Traders) 8875 and BNF Trend Deciding Level 20080 (For Intraday Traders) BNF Trend Changer Level (Positional Traders) 19400 .How to trade Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures as per Trend Changer Level .
The market ended in the positive amid high volatility on the special
trading session after the Union Budget on last Saturday with the Sensex
at 29361 up by 141 points while the Nifty ended at 8901 up by 57 points.
Investors’ sentiment remained high on promises of lower corporate taxes
and deferral of GAAR. However, raising of excise duty and service tax
that will make a host of articles and services costly may be seen as a
dampener for the market. Readers are advised to trade with caution
keeping stock specific approach.
The counter on special trading session after Union Budget closed on
last Saturday gaining 74 points amid wild volatility and intra-day swing
of over 200 points. The counter may move further up to 8988/9007 on
positive opening. Strong support for the counter exists at 8939.25 which
if breached decisively with volumes then it may slide to 8917/8888.
The counter on special trading session after Union Budget closed on
last Saturday gaining over 630 points amid high volatility and intra-day
swing of 840 points. The counter may move further up to 19919/19969 on
positive opening. Strong support for the counter exists at 19788.25
which if breached decisively with volumes then it may slide to
19731/19666.
The
stock after consolidating during the past sessions closed on last
Saturday above its weekly buy signal with moderate volumes gaining over
1%. The stock appears positive on charts and may move up to 189/192 on
volume trading. Strong support for the stock exists at 184.25.
The stock after consolidating during the past sessions closed on last
Saturday above its weekly buy signal with moderate volumes gaining over
½%. The stock appears positive on charts and may move up to 2713/2732 on
volume trading. Strong support for the stock exists at 2687.25.
