Stock Index Chart Patterns: S&P 500 and FTSE 100 – Dec 26, ‘14

S&P 500 Index Chart

In a truncated trading week due to Christmas holiday, volumes were expectedly low. That did not prevent the daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500 to rise to new intra-day and closing highs. All three EMAs are rising and the index is trading above them in a long-term bull market.

The index is coming close to testing resistance from the upward-sloping line of the bearish ‘broadening top’ pattern. A convincing move above the pattern will allow bulls to regain total control.

However, bears may use the opportunity to initiate another sharp correction. Note that two of the three daily indicators – MACD and RSI – failed to touch new highs with the index. The negative divergences is a warning sign for bulls.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index is trading well above its three weekly EMAs in a long-term bull market. But all three weekly technical indicators are showing negative divergences by failing to touch new highs with the index. Brace yourself for a roller-coaster ride.

FTSE 100 Index Chart

In a holiday-shortened trading week, the daily bar chart pattern of FTSE 100 crossed above its 50 day EMA and the 6600 level, but faced strong resistance from its 200 day EMA. Failure to re-enter bull territory may encourage bears to mount another attack.

Daily technical indicators have corrected oversold conditions, but haven’t quite turned bullish yet. MACD is rising above its signal line in negative territory. RSI is moving up towards its 50% level, but its upward momentum is slowing down. Slow stochastic is looking bullish by rising sharply above its 50% level.

Can the index return to bull territory in a convincing manner and show some gains for the year? Bears will try their best not to let that happen.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index is trading well above its 200 week EMA in a long-term bull market, but faced strong resistance from its entangled 20 week and 50 week EMAs. Weekly technical indicators are looking bearish.

NIFTY FUTURE INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 29/12/2014

BUY ABOVE 8303 with SL of 8272 for targets 8319-8342-8365-8388

SELL BELOW 8245 with SL of 8276 for targets 8228-8206-8183-8160

Intraday Resistance…………8328
Intraday Support……………8221

Nifty intraday strategy for 29 December (monday)

BUY near sup of 8180, EXIT if sustain below 8170, and start take profits near 8246: Spot levels : short near 8254 Exit if sustain above 8270 take profits near 8190. I am expecting consolidation which may continue thorough out the week.

I am giving views and calls based on my trading experience and technical, so please consult SEBI certified adviser before taking any decision, I am not SEBI certified adviser.

INTRADAY CALL FOR 26.12.2014

Nifty ( Spot ) : The crucial support for the Nifty is at 8150 – 8100 – 8075  and the resistance is at  8220 – 8275

Pre-market Future Call ( Intraday) :

ACC  —  Buy above 1415  StopLoss 1406 Target 1425 , 1434

               Short Sell below 1406  Stop Loss 1415 Target 1396 , 1387

LUPIN  — Buy above 1434  StopLoss 1425  Target  1444 , 1453

                Short Sell below 1425  StopLoss 1434 Target 1415 , 1406

NIFTY FUTURE INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 24/12/2014

BUY ABOVE 8300 with SL of 8270 for targets 8317-8340-8363-8386 

SELL BELOW 8273 with SL of 8300 for targets 8249-8226-8204-8181 

Intraday Resistance…………8329 

Intraday Support……………8215

NIFTY FUTURE INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 23/12/2014

Buy above 8317 with SL of 8306 for targets 8337-8357-8380-8402

Buy above 8362 with SL of 8332 for targets 8380-8402-8425

Sell below 8306 with SL of 8336 for targets 8288-8266-8243

Intraday Resistance…………8389
Intraday Support……………8280

Stock Index Chart Patterns: S&P 500 and FTSE 100 – Dec 19, ‘14

S&P 500 Index Chart

The daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500 index dropped briefly below 1975, but suddenly turned around and recovered almost all its losses from its Dec 5 top in just three trading sessions. US Fed’s decision not to raise interest rates in the near future provided just the impetus the bulls needed.

All three EMAs are rising and the index is trading above them. The bulls are back in control after a sharp correction. Or, are they? Note that the index is still within the ‘broadening top’ pattern, and needs to overcome the resistance of the upward-sloping blue line of the pattern for the bull market to continue.

An increase in volatility – as witnessed during the formation of the ‘broadening top’ pattern – is a sign of nervousness among investors. Does that mean a change of trend is in the offing? One needs to wait for technical confirmation – but the formation of a bearish reversal pattern should be respected.

Daily technical indicators are back in bullish zones. A continuation of the rally is likely.
On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index is trading above its three weekly EMAs in a long-term bull market. Weekly technical indicators are in bullish zones.

FTSE 100 Index Chart



The daily bar chart pattern of FTSE 100 dropped to an intra-day low of 6145 on Dec 16 ‘14, but bounced up strongly on the next three days to move above the 6550 level – where it faced resistance from its falling 50 day EMA.

On Oct 16 ‘14, the index had touched an intra-day low of 6073. By touching a slightly higher bottom on Dec 16 ‘14, the index appears to have formed a ‘double bottom’ reversal pattern. However, volumes were higher when the index touched its Oct 16 low.

Also, on a closing basis, the Oct ‘14 low was 6196 whereas the Dec ‘14 low was 6183. That means a bearish pattern of ‘lower tops and lower bottoms’ has been formed.
Technical indicators have corrected oversold conditions, but remain in bearish zones.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index dropped below its 200 week EMA, but managed to close well above it. However, the index is trading below its 20 week and 50 week EMAs. Weekly technical indicators are looking bearish. Bears may mount another attack.

Nifty Weekly Analysis for Dec Expiry

Last week we gave  Nifty Chopad level of 8205 Nifty  did 3 target on downside and got stop out on upside ,Nifty after making short term bottom @ 7961 is back above 8200 We have Jharkhad and J&K election results coming on 23 Dec and Expiry on 24 Dec .Lets see how to trade next week.

 Nifty Hourly Chart

Nifty Hourly charts is approaching its trendline resistance @8306 crossing the same the upmove will continue till 8380/8450 else we might see pullback again towards 8150 odd levels.

 Nifty Hourly Elliot Wave Chart

Elliot wave chart  on Hourly is shown above suggesting upmove can continue further and 8280/8300 will decide further course of action.

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty daily chart with Gann Box is shown above. Its heading towards 2X1 resistance  of gann box, crossing the same bounceback else the trend continues on downside.

 Nifty Harmonic

Nifty daily chart as shown above has entered in BUy on dips mode, Harmonic pattern shows correction is coming to an end.

Nifty Daily Elliot Wave Chart

As per EW more legs are left to the rally use dips to take exposure to quality large and mid caps stocks.

Nifty Gann Date

As per time analysis 23 and 24 December  is Gann Turn date , except a impulsive around this date.  Last week we gave 16 December  is Gann Turn date and Nifty  showed expected move with a 152 points downmove.

Nifty Gann Emblem

 

23 Dec and 16 Jan are very important date as per Gann Embelm.

 Nifty Gaps

For Nifty traders who follow gap trading there are 7 trade gaps in the range of  7000-7800

• 7067-7014
• 7130-7121
• 7276-7293
• 7229-7239
• 7454-7459
• 7526-7532
• 7598-7568
• 7625-7654
• 7780-7856
• 7927-7974
• 8029-8084
• 8159-8208

It was positive week, with the Nifty up by 1 points  closing @8225 forming a hammer candlestick pattern . Weekly time frame as per Harmonic suggests Nifty is still in buy on dips mode . Nifty started the new time cycle with a negative week but this week we saw a buying at lows suggesting negative week cycle is getting over.


 

Trading Monthly charts

December Bulls need to protect 8150 and bears any close below 8100 can put a dent to this rally.

 Nifty Weekly Chopad Levels

Nifty Trend Deciding Level:8286

Nifty Resistance:8335,8416,8465

Nifty Support:8205,8150,8100

 

 

Bank Nifty Weekly Analysis for Dec Expiry

Bank Nifty Hourly

Bank Nifty hourly chart will breakout above 18600 for target of 18900.

Bank Nifty Hourly  EW Daily

Hourly Elliot wave analysis is shown,18600 will play crucial role next week.

Bank Nifty EW Daily

This is what we discussed last week Long term Elliot wave is drawn on Bank Nifty which gives target of 19819, so dips till 18000/17800 should be bought into.

Bank Nifty made low of 17504 and zoomed up 800 points.

 Bank Nifty Daily Bias

Bank Nifty daily bias has turned to Buy the Dips for next week.

Bank Nifty Gann Dates

As per time analysis 23 December +1 day  is Gann Turn date , except a impulsive around this date.Last week gann date rewarded with 550 points in single day.

Fibonacci technique

Fibonacci Fans

Bank nifty took support@ Fibo fan line suggesting still in buy on dips mode. Now break of 18600 will suggests new highs are coming.

Bank Nifty Weekly

Bank Nifty Weekly chart took support at middle of  AF line and harmonic pattern suggests still its in buy on dips mode.Break of 18600 will suggest bank nifty can move up and form new life high.

Bank Nifty Monthly

Bank Nifty in current correction took support@ 200% channel which is extremely bullish in short term. Holding the sam Bank nifty can approach to make a new life highs.

 Bank Nifty Weekly Chopad Levels

Bank Nifty Trend Deciding Level:18556

Bank Nifty Resistance:18686,18946,19076

Bank Nifty Support:18426,18296,18166

Nifty corrects 666 points, FII FnO Data Analysis

• FII’s sold 24.6 K contract of Index Future worth 493 cores, 6.3 K Long contract were liquidated by FII’s and 18.2 K short contracts  were added by FII’s. Net Open Interest increased  by 11.9 K contract ,so FII’s liquidated long in Index Futures  and continue adding shorts in index future.

•  Nifty has corrected the scared 666 points in the current correction, Review of Nifty Corrections in 2014  .Today fall has lead to capitulation as the last savior of Bulls pharmas cracked today, market showed good recovery from the low of 7961 but till it do not close above  8082 bears are still having upper hand. Nifty has taken support near the Gann Box, also signalling short term bottom can be formed soon. Current market correction Bull market correction are fast and furious so use the dips to enter delivery based buying. As per quantitative analysis maximum rise seen in current fall is 80-90 points so if we rise more than 90 points we can see short term bottom is in place. I have been advocating on Buy the dips only for investors not for over leveraged traders for the simple reason we are in bull market.  S&P 500 in past 4 years of Bull run showed such 5-8% dips almost 6 times and investors who bought those dips were rewarded handsomely.

• Nifty Future December Open Interest Volume is at 2.39 core with addition of 0.12 lakh in OIsuggesting shorts addition ,with decrease in VIX.

• Total Future & Option trading volume was   at 3.89 lakh core with total contract traded at 6.7 lakh. PCR @0.94.Cash market volumes were @20K cores highest in series.

• 8500  CE  OI at 57.8 lakh so wall of resistance @ 8500.8000/8400 CE saw addition of 26.5 lakhso  bears are in full form.FII bought 5.4 K CE and 82 K CE were shorted  by them.

• 8000 PE OI@ 60.9 lakhs so strong base @ 8000. 8100 PE  liquidated 5.6  lakh in OI so  8100/8200 PE writers have  panicked today. FII bought 95.7 K PE and 10.7 K PE  were shorted  by them.
  

• FII’s sold 1636  cores in Equity and DII bought 1423  cores in cash segment.INR closed at 63.6.

• Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 8067 (For Intraday Traders). NF Trend Changer Level (Positional Traders) 8229 and BNF Trend Deciding Level 17870 (For Intraday Traders) BNF Trend Changer Level (Positional Traders) 18275 .How to trade Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures as per Trend Changer Level .  

Buy above 8042 Tgt 8091,8130 and 8153(Nifty Spot Levels)

Sell below 8020 Tgt 8000,7975 and 7950 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Nifty chart: a mid-week update (Dec 17 ‘14)

The sharp and continuous fall in the price of crude oil – though beneficial for India – has spooked FIIs big time. Plummeting oil demand is a sign of slow economic growth, particularly in Europe.

Eventually, it will hit shale oil production in USA, as extraction costs will become unremunerative. Some countries that are dependent on oil revenues – like Russia, Venezuela, Nigeria – can slip into recession.

During the first three trading days of this week, FIIs net sold a huge Rs 3300 Crores worth of equities. DII buying worth Rs 2100 Crores could not stop the slide in Nifty.

The WPI number was 0% – which means the wholesale price basket a year ago in the same month was at the same level. The stage is being set for an interest rate cut by RBI sooner than later. That should bring cheer to a market currently devoid of positive triggers.

Nifty has dropped below its 20 day and 50 day EMAs into the support zone between 7840 and 8180 (corresponding to its Jul ‘14 and Sep ‘14 tops). Can the index fall more?

Yes, if the FIIs continue with their heavy selling. However, technically, 7840 should provide strong support because the blue ‘Up trend line 2’ (drawn through Aug ‘13 and Feb ‘14 lows) is currently just above 7840.

In case 7840 gets breached, the next support will be at 7600 – corresponding to the May ‘14 top and the current level of the 200 day EMA.

Daily technical indicators are looking oversold.  MACD has fallen rapidly below its signal line into negative territory. ROC is falling below its 10 day MA and is on the verge of entering its oversold zone. Both RSI and Slow stochastic have dropped inside their respective oversold zones.

A technical bounce can be expected at any time. Whether it causes an immediate resumption of the up move remains to be seen.

As long as the 200 day EMA keeps rising and Nifty trades above it, there should be no fears of a reversal of the bull market. The correction is providing an adding opportunity.

Nifty continue with fall, FII FnO Data Analysis

• FII’s sold 24.7 K contract of Index Future worth 556 cores, 19.6 K Long contract were added by FII’s and 5 K short contracts  were added by FII’s. Net Open Interest decreased  by 24.7 K contract ,so FII’s liquidated long in Index Futures  and continue adding shorts in index future.

•  Nifty has corrected 575 points in the current correction, Review of Nifty Corrections in 2014  Nifty has broken both AF support and 50 SMA with gap down, now heading towards the 61.8% Fibo retracement of current fall. Nifty has from past 3 times bounced from this level as shown below. Bull market correction are fast and furious so use the dips to enter delivery based buying. As per quantitative analysis maximum rise seen in current fall is 80-90 points so if we rise more than 90 points we can see short term bottom is in place. I have been advocating on Buy the dips only for investors not for over leveraged traders for the simple reason we are in bull market.  S&P 500 in past 4 years of Bull run showed such 5-8% dips almost 6 times and investors who bought those dips were rewarded handsomely.

• Nifty Future December Open Interest Volume is at 2.39 core with addition of 4 lakh in OIsuggesting shorts addition ,with increase in VIX.

• Total Future & Option trading volume was   at 4.01  lakh core with total contract traded at 6.9 lakh. PCR @1.01.

• 8500  CE  OI at 59.9 lakh so wall of resistance @ 8500.8000/8400 CE saw addition of 61.3 lakh so  bears are in full form.FII bought 16.4 K CE and 70.5 K CE were shorted  by them.

• 8000 PE OI@ 63.8 lakhs so strong base @ 8000  with addition of 23.5 lakhs . 8100 PE did not liquidate 0.05  lakh in OI so  8100 PE writers have not panicked till now. FII bought 104 K PE and 44.7 K PE  were shorted  by them.
  

• FII’s sold 455  cores in Equity and DII bought 136  cores in cash segment.INR closed at 63.53.

• Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 8158 (For Intraday Traders). NF Trend Changer Level (Positional Traders) 8468 and BNF Trend Deciding Level 18082 (For Intraday Traders) BNF Trend Changer Level (Positional Traders) 18544 .How to trade Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures as per Trend Changer Level .  

Buy above 8076 Tgt 8091,8130 and 8153(Nifty Spot Levels)

Sell below 8052 Tgt 8017,7975 and 7930 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Nifty trades around 50 DMA, FII FnO Data Analysis

• FII’s bought 6.6 K contract of Index Future worth 178 cores, 7.6 K Long contract were added by FII’s and 0.9 K short contracts  were added by FII’s. Net Open Interest increased  by 8.6 K contract ,so FII’s added long in Index Futures more aggresively and continue adding shorts in index future.

•  Nifty has corrected 475 points in the current correction, Review of Nifty Corrections in 2014  We are near AF Support, September month resistance of 8181 and 50 SMA, so traders shorts can book profit. Bulls will get lease of life above 8242 and major short covering can come above 8330. Bull market correction are fast and furious so use the dips to enter delivery based buying.

• Nifty Future December Open Interest Volume is at 2.35 core with addition of 3.9 lakh in OIsuggesting shorts addition ,with increase in VIX.

• Total Future & Option trading volume was   at 2.15  lakh core with total contract traded at 3.4lakh. PCR @0.91.

• 8500  CE  OI at 70.7 lakh so wall of resistance @ 8500.8000/8400 CE saw addition of 18.2 lakhso  bears are in full form.FII sold 17.6 K CE and 19.9 K CE were shorted  by them.

• 8200 PE OI@ 49.2 lakhs so strong base @ 8200  . 8100 PE added 4.4  lakh in OI so traders are making strong base in this range. FII bought 0.05 K PE and 3.1 K PE  were shorted  by them.
  

• FII’s sold 455  cores in Equity and DII bought 136  cores in cash segment.INR closed at 62.94.

• Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 8263 (For Intraday Traders). NF Trend Changer Level (Positional Traders) 8492 and BNF Trend Deciding Level 18480 (For Intraday Traders) BNF Trend Changer Level (Positional Traders) 18578 .How to trade Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures as per Trend Changer Level .  
  

Buy above 8222 Tgt 8242,8257 and 8294(Nifty Spot Levels)

Sell below 8200 Tgt 8186,8160 and 8140 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Nifty Weekly Analysis for 15-19 Dec

Last week we gave  Nifty Chopad level of 8546 Nifty made high of 8627 and came down till 8504 did 1 target on downside,Nifty  continued with its upward journey and make new life highs but closed negative on weekly basis after 6 straight weekly rise.Lets see how to trade next week.

 Nifty Hourly Chart

Nifty Hourly charts has broken its trendline @8300 and is now heading towards 8171/8180 range , if held we can see bounceback in nifty.

 Nifty Hourly Elliot Wave Chart

Elliot wave chart  on Hourly is shown above suggesting correction is on verge of completion and we can see bpunceback till 8300 levels.

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty daily chart with Gann Box is shown above. Its heading towards 50% support of gann box, holding the same bounceback else the trend continues on downside.

 Nifty Harmonic

Nifty daily chart as shown above has entered in BUy on dips mode, Harmonic pattern shows correction is coming to an end.

Nifty Daily Elliot Wave Chart

As per EW more legs are left to the rally use dips to take exposure to quality large and mid caps stocks.

Nifty Gann Date

As per time analysis 16 December +1   is Gann Turn date , except a impulsive around this date.  Last week we gave 08 December  is Gann Turn date and Nifty  showed expected move with a 100 points downmove.

Nifty Gann Emblem

 

22 Dec and 16 Jan are very important date as per Gann Embelm.

 Nifty Gaps

For Nifty traders who follow gap trading there are 7 trade gaps in the range of  7000-7800

• 7067-7014
• 7130-7121
• 7276-7293
• 7229-7239
• 7454-7459
• 7526-7532
• 7598-7568
• 7625-7654
• 7780-7856
• 7927-7974
• 8027-8052
• 8169-8198

Fibonacci technique

Fibonacci fan

8168/8181 should be watched closely on upside and 8350/8400 on upside.

Nifty Weekly Chart

It was negative week, with the Nifty down by 314 points  closing @8224 . Weekly time frame as per AF?Harmonic suggests Nifty is entering a support zone so shorts can start booking profits. Nifty started the new time cycle with a negative week. So bias remains bearish till this cycle do not get complete. 

Trading Monthly charts

December Bulls need to protect 8150 and bears any close below 8100 can put a dent to this rally.

 Nifty Weekly Chopad Levels

 Nifty Trend Deciding Level:8205

Nifty Resistance:8286,8328,8367

Nifty Support:8156,8080,8026

Trading strategy for 12th December 2014

The market after weak opening yesterday slipped to day’s low at noon but soon recovered to hit session high in mid-afternoon trade which however failed to sustain on profit taking and the market slipped again to close losing heavily with the Sensex at 27602, down by 229 points after sliding to a low of 27539 and a high of 27796 while the Nifty ended at 8292, down by 62 points. Investors remained cautious ahead of release of CPI/IIP nos. The market breadth remained weak as 1209 shares advanced while 1807 declined. Readers are advised to trade with caution keeping stock specific approach.

NIFTY FUTURE (Last close 8342.10)
The counter after weak opening yesterday soon slipped further to day’s low of 8316 on profit taking in noon trade. The counter witnessed recovery in afternoon trades which however, remained short lived and slipped again to close losing 64 points. The counter may remain under pressure and slip further to 8317/8300 on negative opening. Strong resistance for the counter exists at 8365.75 which if crossed over with volumes then it may move up to 8384/8406.

BANK NIFTY FUTURE (Last close 18505.40)
The counter after flat opening yesterday closed losing over 100 points after slipping to session low of 18306 and a high of 18630 in intra day trades. The counter to gain strength needs to trade and remain above 18547.75 whereby it may move up to 18591/18667. Strong support for the counter exists at 18461.25 which if breached decisively with volumes then it may slide to 18403/18350.

JSW ENERGY FUTURE (Last close 94.35)
The stock after consolidating during the early part of the week closed yesterday near its weekly buy signal with moderate volumes gaining marginally. The stock appears positive on charts and may move up to 96/98 on volume trading. Strong support for the stock appears at 92.25.

MCLEOD RUSSEL FUTURE (Last close 239.75)
The stock after consolidating during the early part of the week closed yesterday near its weekly buy signal with moderate volumes gaining 1%. The stock appears positive on charts and may move up to 243/245 on volume trading. Strong support for the stock exists at 237.25.

FII FnO Data Analysis for 05 Dec

• FII’s sold 32.2 K contract of Index Future worth 756 cores, 24.3 K Long contract were squared off by FII’s and 7.8 K short contracts  were added by FII’s. Net Open Interest decreased  by 16.4 K contract ,so FII’s squared off long in Index Futures, added shorts in index future.But with this big selling also NF was up by 27 points and BNF closed up 112  points showing no major impact seen in market.

• Nifty made a new life High @ 8637  saw a pullback of 100 points @8526 ,so again the 100 point concept came in rescue for bulls and nifty rallied to close @ 8564. So low of 8526 is very important number to be watched. Nifty On hourly charts is near the channel bottom with Hourly oversold so 8526 held we can see move up to channel top again. Weekly Closing tomorrow Bulls want to close above 8630 and bears below 8500.

• Nifty Future December Open Interest Volume is at 1.98 core with liquidation of 6.1 lakh in OIsuggesting long liquidation.We are down 23 lakh in OI in past 5 trading session suggesting excessive bullishness is out of system.

• Total Future & Option trading volume was   at 1.58 lakh core with total contract traded at 3.2 lakh. PCR @1.05. Excessive bullishness is out of the system.

• 8700  CE  OI at 54.8 lakh so wall of resistance @ 8700.8800/8900 CE saw addition of 2.2 lakhstill no liquidation suggesting speculative buying still happening.FII bought 20.3 K CE and 6.7 K CE were shorted by them.Net Options OI has increased to 4.2 lakhs suggesting range bound moves can continue.

• 8500 PE OI@ 56.5 lakhs so strong base @ 8500  . 8400 PE added 4.1 lakh in OI so strong base building happening @8400. FII bought 4.9 K PE and 3.8 K  PE were shorted by them.
  

• FII’s bought 474 cores in Equity and DII sold 586 cores in cash segment.INR closed at 61.91

• Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 8593 (For Intraday Traders). NF Trend Changer Level (Positional Traders) 8589 and BNF Trend Deciding Level 18754 (For Intraday Traders) BNF Trend Changer Level (Positional Traders) 18580 .How to trade Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures as per Trend Changer Level .  

Buy above 8575 Tgt 8600,8630 and 8650 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Sell below 8550 Tgt 8520,8500 and 8472 (Nifty Spot Levels)

FII FnO Data Analysis for 03 Dec

• FII’s sold 55.5 K contract of Index Future worth 1295 cores, 52.9 K Long contract were squared off by FII’s and 2.5 K short contracts  were added by FII’s. Net Open Interest decreased  by 50.3K contract ,so FII’s squared off long in Index Futures, added shorts in index future.But with this big selling also NF was down just 20 points and BNF closed up 20 points showing no major impact seen in market. Most of these positions were bought before the event and once it got over were squared off immediately.

• Nifty saw a pullback of 119 points ,so keep an eye of this pullback if it extends more than 100 points as discussed in previous post  correction will resume ,else again march to new highs will be seen.so low of 8500 is very important number to be watched. Nifty On hourly charts is near the channel bottom with Hourly oversold so 8500 held we can see move up to channel top again. Expect big range day in next 2 trading session as per gann time analysis.

• Nifty Future December Open Interest Volume is at 2.13 core with liquidation of 5.5 lakh in OIsuggesting long liquidation with increase in cost of carry.

• Total Future & Option trading volume was   at 1.97 lakh core with total contract traded at 4 lakh. PCR @1.01.

• 8700  CE  OI at 50.6 lakh so wall of resistance @ 8700.8800/8900 CE saw addition of 4.6 lakhstill no liquidation suggesting speculative buying still happening.FII sold 3.8 K CE and 20.2 K CE were shorted by them.

• 8500 PE OI@ 47.1 lakhs so strong base @ 8500  . 8400 PE added 5.7 lakh in OI so strong base building happening @8400. FII bought 12.4 K PE and 28.6 K PE were shorted by them.
  

• FII’s bought 106  cores in Equity and DII sold 40.2 cores in cash segment.INR closed at 61.8

• Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 8572 (For Intraday Traders). NF Trend Changer Level (Positional Traders) 8593 and BNF Trend Deciding Level 18590 (For Intraday Traders) BNF Trend Changer Level (Positional Traders) 18500 .How to trade Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures as per Trend Changer Level .  

Buy above 8530 Tgt 8555,8582 and 8610 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Sell below 8500Tgt 8474,8443 and 8420(Nifty Spot Levels)

Gold and Silver charts: bear market rallies continue

Gold Chart Pattern

In the previous post on the daily bar chart pattern of gold, daily technical indicators were turning bullish. The rally from the Nov 7 ‘14 low of 1130 was expected to continue – and so it has. After facing resistance from its falling 50 day EMA, gold’s price started sliding and dropped sharply below its 20 day EMA, backed by strong volumes, on Nov 28 ‘14.

A big ‘reversal day’ pattern (lower low, higher close) on huge volume support propelled gold’s price above its 20 day and 50 day EMAs to an intra-day high of 1220 on Dec 1. Note that gold is trading well below its falling 200 day EMA in a bear market. The bearish pattern of ‘lower tops and lower bottoms’ is intact. Can the rally continue a little longer?

Daily technical indicators are still looking bullish. MACD is negative, but is rising above its signal line. RSI has moved above its 50% level after a sharp drop below it. Slow stochastic has dropped from its overbought zone, but its downward momentum has stalled. As mentioned in the previous post, the support/resistance zone between 1240-1260 may come into play if the rally continues.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), gold’s price is trading below its three weekly EMAs in a long-term bear market. Technical indicators have corrected oversold conditions, but remain in bearish zones. The next long-term support is at 1000; that is where gold’s price may find a bottom.

Silver Chart Pattern

The daily bar chart pattern of silver dropped to a new intra-day low of 14.20 on Dec 1 ‘14, but formed a ‘reversal day’ pattern (lower low, higher close) backed by strong volumes. The support at 14 was tested but not breached.

However, silver’s price failed to get past the strong resistance from its falling 50 day EMA, and is trading well below its falling 200 day EMA in a long-term bear market. Expect the bears to get active at any time.

Technical indicators are looking bullish. MACD is rising above its signal line in negative zone. RSI managed to climb above its 50% level after a sharp fall below it. Slow stochastic has dropped from its overbought zone, but is above its 50% level.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), silver’s price is trading well below its three weekly EMAs in a long-term bear market. Technical indicators have corrected oversold conditions, but remain in bearish zones.

Trading strategy for 2nd December 2014

The market after flat opening yesterday slipped lower in early afternoon trades on profit taking led by losses in metal and Oil & Gas stocks among others with the Sensex closing at 28559 down by 134 points while the Nifty ended at 8555 down by 32 points. Auto stocks remained firm after better than expected sales nos. for November. Market will be keenly watching today’s monetary policy review by the RBI. The market breadth remained positive as 1283 stocks advanced while 1048 declined. Readers are advised to trade with caution keeping stock specific approach.

NIFTY FUTURE (Last close 8595.90)
The counter after flat opening yesterday remained range bound till late afternoon when profit taking emerged taking the counter to session low of 8588. The counter finally closed losing ½%. The counter appears with negative bias and may slip further to 8566/8549. Strong resistance for the counter exists at 8618.75 which if crossed decisively with volumes then it may move up to 8645/8662.

BANK NIFTY FUTURE (Last close 18646.30)
The counter after flat opening yesterday moved with moderate volatility throughout the session and finally closed flat with marginal loss of 18 points. The counter may remain volatile today in view of apex bank’s policy review meet. The counter may move up to 18727/18788 on positive opening. Strong support for the counter exists at 18596.25 which if breached decisively with volumes then it may slide to 18524/18486.

HCL TECH FUTURE (Last close 1681.90)
The stock after consolidating during the past sessions closed yesterday above its weekly buy signal with moderate volumes gaining over ½%. The stock appears positive on charts and may move up to 1689/1697 on volume trading. Strong support for the stock exists at 1673.25.

REC FUTURE (Last close 344.50)
The stock after consolidating during the past sessions closed yesterday above its weekly buy signal with moderate volumes gaining over 1%. The stock appears positive on charts and may move up to 348/350 on volume trading. Strong support for the stock exists at 341.25.