Thursday, 31 July 2014

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 01/08/2014

VOLATILE MOVES SEEN ON SETTLEMENT DAY.
AGAIN NIFTY TAKING SUPPORT AT 7711 LEVEL
AND CLOSES AT 7721.
IF NIFTY SLIP AND CLOSE BELOW 7711 ON FRIDAY
BEARS WILL TAKE NIFTY TO 7600.
7422 IS THE NEXT TARGET FOR BEARS.
ON THE UPSIDE,
BULLS NEED A CLOSE ABOVE 7822 TO
TAKE THE DRIVER SEAT OF THE MARKET.
ON THE WEEKLY CHARTS,
LEVEL 7822-44 SEEMS BIG BIG RESISTANCE.
NIFTY SHOWING SOME FORM OF TREND REVERSAL.
AS PER TECHNICAL,
NOW THE WEEKLY PIVOT IS 7777.
ABOVE 7822 BULLS CAN TARGET 7955 AND 8044.
BELOW 7733 BEARS CAN TARGET 7600 AND 7511.
Hindalco stock looks good for august series . strong buying momemtum to continue for this month .I recommend to buy hindalco with a stoploss of 185.2 target 205.40 .

Wednesday, 30 July 2014

EQUITY CALLS IN MARKET HOURS AND MARKET OUTLOOK – 31.7.2014

Nifty ( Spot ) : The crucial support for the Nifty is at 7750 – 7700 – 7675  and the resistance is at  7850 – 7875
Pre-market Future Call ( Intraday) :
LUPIN  —  Buy above 1182  StopLoss 1173 Target 1190 , 1198
               Short Sell below 1173  StopLoss 1182 Target 1165 , 1157
HDFCBANK  Buy above 841  StopLoss 833  Target  848 , 855
               Short Sell below 833  StopLoss 841 Target 826 , 820

Trading strategy for 31st July 2014

The market after flat opening yesterday continued to drift lower till late afternoon when short covering coupled with value buying in select front line stocks emerged pulling the market up erasing earlier losses. The Sensex finally closed at 26087 gaining 96 points while the Nifty ended at 7791 up by 42 points. The market may remain volatile today as July’14 F&O series expires today. Readers are advised to trade with caution keeping stock specific approach.
NIFTY FUTURE (Last close 7788.30)
The counter after flat opening yesterday continued to drift lower till late afternoon slipping to day’s low of 7711 when short covering coupled with value buying in select front line stocks pulled up the counter to session high of 7794 erasing earlier losses. The counter finally closed gaining 45 points. The counter to retain its up move needs to trade and remain above 7805.75 whereby it may move up to 7824/7839. Strong support for the counter exists at 7769.25 which if breached decisively with volumes then it may slide to 7753/7735.
BANK NIFTY FUTURE (Last close 15451.70)
The counter after positive opening yesterday failed to hold on to the opening levels and moved with negative bias till late afternoon when short covering coupled with value buying in front line banking stock emerged pulling up the counter to day’s high of 15469 in closing hours. The counter finally closed gaining over 220 points. The counter to retain its up move needs to trade and remain above 15477.75 whereby it may move up to 15527/15571. Strong support for the counter exists at 15419.25 which if breached decisively with volumes then it may slide to 15363/15296.

Tuesday, 29 July 2014

EQUITY CALLS IN MARKET HOURS AND MARKET OUTLOOK – 30.7.2014

Those investors who are in a panic because Nifty has corrected for 2 straight sessions, and are worried that the index may face a huge fall – here is some good news.
Take a long-term view. The future doesn’t look that murky at all. In fact, it looks extremely bright.
Nifty ( Spot ) : The crucial support for the Nifty is at 7700 – 7650 – 7600  and the resistance is at  7800 – 7850
Pre-market Future Call ( Intraday) :
TATAMOTORS  —  Buy above 457  StopLoss 451 Target 463 , 467
                           Short Sell below 451  StopLoss 457 Target 445 , 441
DLF  — Buy above 196  StopLoss 192  Target  200 , 203
           Short Sell below 192  StopLoss 196 Target 188 , 185

Saturday, 26 July 2014

EQUITY CALLS IN MARKET HOURS AND MARKET OUTLOOK – 28.7.2014

Nifty ( Spot ) : The crucial support for the Nifty is at 7750 – 7700 – 7650  and the resistance is at  7850 – 7875
Pre-market Future Call ( Intraday) :
LICHSGFIN  —  Buy above 297.80  StopLoss 293 Target 302 , 306
                      Short Sell below 293  StopLoss 297 Target 288 , 285

RELCAPITAL  — Buy above 588  StopLoss 582  Target  594 , 599
                       Short Sell below 582  StopLoss 588 Target 575 , 570

Trading Lesson Learnt From my Trading Guru

The day I started trading I hoped to make lot of money, and ultimate goal of every trader is to trade for a living. My Guru asked me how you are going to make “a lot of money”, I said some blah blah but Honestly speaking I did not had any concrete answer.  Somewhere in the back of my mind I secretly hoped I will catch the one big move that will make me enough money to trade like Big boys. Unfortunately the odds of catching the “big one” are probably the same as those for winning the lottery.
I hope many traders who are trading or willing to start trading will be facing with the same dilemma and confusion so today am sharing few fundas i got from my trading guru. Use them and see the change in your trading.

Have a realistic trading goal

First and foremost thing my Guru told me  “I should have a trading goal“. The goal did not have to be a large one like being a millionaire in 1 year, Trading goal should be simple and realistic. Having a trading goal would help me focus better on the markets. I would come to see better opportunities (note this is not the same as “more opportunities”) as well as managing my money better. Since I did not have a very large trading account at that point of time ,My Guru suggested to start with a goal of netting 2500 per week out of the markets. So If I could do this consistently for four weeks, I should be able to net Rs1000 a month which is almost 10% return on capital.
I told my Guru “Sir its not possible for me to live of  Rs 10000 a month !”. He laughed at my innocence and told ” Bramesh ”  If you could consistently net 2500 a week, using single contracts, for the next 12 weeks, theoretically there would be no limit on the amount of money I could earn by trading.”   Still confused I asked how this was possible.
He said that no trader, who trades for a living, does so trading just one contract at a time. The power of making money in the markets comes through the use of multiple contracts. If you can net just 2500 a week using single contracts out of your trades, then with four contracts you should, in theory, be able to net 10000 a week, or 40000 a month. However, trading multiple contracts like this without first being able to trade consistently would be financial suicide.
The Key here was able to get 2500 for a week using single contract, so after your commissions and losses you should be able to get 2500 at the end of the week.
Now here is the tricky part: while you should never enter a trade with the hopes of making up losses, the fact remains that if you are going to make consistent gains from your trading, your winning trades will need to surpass your losers (plus commissions).
So after giving lot of thought process finally came to realize this is possibly the best advice for cutting losing positions quickly that I had ever heard!Basically the consequences of keeping a losing position too long,Hoping it will reverse back to my cost would always  break me in the long run.
My Guru further added Your focus was on a profit goal, it was important to maintain a proper risk/reward ratio. If there was too much money at risk, given the possible reward, then it would put too much pressure on the following trades to make up for losses that were incurred earlier. However, by keeping losses to a minimum, the following trades would have a better chance of adding to the weekly profit goal.
My Guru again emphasized , having a smaller trading goal, I would be more inclined to book profits when I had them; rather than hold on too long thinking I will make more in the move and finally watching the market eventually take the profits away.Thousands of traders have given up maximum  profits because they thought the market would move just a little bit more.
My Guru clealry mentioned during starting of your trading career when your account size is small always use  exit order to book profits, rather than using a trailing stop loss to exit the market. As my trading goal was on weekly basis so it made more sense to use exit order rather than TSL.
As your account grows and you can afford to trade with multiple contracts, you will simultaneously be able to book some of the profits from a portion of your open contracts, while still leaving a few contracts in place, with a trailing stop loss order, to take advantage of further market moves. Yet before you can begin trading like this, you first need to build your account and develop your consistency.
He reminded me that this was just a goal however and that you can not make the markets give you more than they are prepared to give. This means that you must be constantly prepared to take a profit; rather than sacrifice the profit you already have, in hopes of gaining more, even if you are shy of your goal. After all, if the market continues higher after you exit, you still have the option of re-entering the market again if the trade still looks viable.
To conclude To develop your trading consistency you first need to decide on a weekly goal. If you are like most small traders, a goal of netting 2500 per week using single contracts is a good place to start. While it might not seem like a very challenging goal on the surface, you might soon discover, through your  trading, that it is not be as easy as you first believed. Remember, your goal is to gain 2500 per week with single contracts, net of commissions and any losses that were incurred earlier in the week. Once you have set a weekly goal for yourself, see for how many weeks you are able to attain it. If you can reach your goal for 12 to 16 consecutive weeks you will be doing very well. If you are doing any less than that, then you still need to practice.
Start each week fresh. There will be some weeks where you will not fair very well at all. You might find yourself with a string of losses and a cumulative loss for the week that seems insurmountable. If you are unable to attain your goal for that week, do your best to learn from your mistakes and make a new start the following week. Remember that you are performing the exercise to learn to trade consistently, so don’t be too hard on yourself.
While you might be comfortable trading one contract at a time, trading multiple contracts can put a lot of pressure on the psyche. If you can consistently earn profits with one contract then add another. If you continue to earn consistent profits with two contracts add two more contracts, and so on.
One final tip: Take care choosing the markets you wish to follow. Since your goal is consistency you might be best off to avoid the more volatile markets. Due to their volatility, these markets normally have higher margin requirements as well; however it is not usually a problem as there are plenty of less volatile, lower margin markets that offer plenty of potential for the small trader.
Take your time and remember that consistently earning profits is the real goal.

Thursday, 24 July 2014

BANKNIFTY AND NIFTY FUTURES CALLS FOR 25TH JULY2014

BUY BANKNIFTY AT/ABOVE 15520 TARGET 15610-15665-15700 SL 15440
SELL BANKNIFTY AT/BELOW 15599 TARGETS 15508-15455 SL 15673
BUY NIFTY FUT AT/ABOVE 7815 TARGETS 7854-7876-7899-7920 SL 7785
SELL NIFTY FUT AT/BELOW 7850 TARGETS 7812-7791-7780 SL 7881

BANKNIFTY AND NIFTY FUTURES LEVELS FOR 25TH JULY 2014

BANKNIFTY FUTURES LEVELS FOR THE DAY:
BANKNIFTY RANGE FOR THE DAY IS 15420-15680
Resistances are at 15615-15665-15708 and supports at 15500-15445-15380
Above 15710 is a range breakout with further targets/resistances placed at 15799-15890
Below 15385 is a range breakdown with further targets/supports placed at 15325-15230
BankNifty Futures is strong only above 15530
NIFTY FUTURES LEVELS FOR THE DAY:
NIFTY RANGE FOR THE DAY IS 7755-7890
Resistances are at 7860-7882-7890-7930 and supports at 7810-7787-7755-7730
Above 7892 is a range breakout with further targets/resistances placed at 7920-7970
Below 7700 is a range breakdown with further supports/targets placed at 7683-7642
Nifty Futures is strong only above 7820

Wednesday, 23 July 2014

Trading strategy for 24th July 2014

The market after positive opening yesterday moved up in morning trades but witnessed profit taking in later session and drifted lower touching day’s low in late afternoon trades. The market however, recovered in closing hours led by gains in index heavy weight stocks namely Bharti, Infy, TCS, Reliance among others. The Sensex closed the day at 26147 gaining 121 points after dipping to a low of 26000 while the Nifty ended at 7795 with marginal gain of 27 points. Readers are advised to trade with caution keeping stock specific approach.
NIFTY FUTURE (Last close 7791.55)
The counter after positive opening yesterday moved higher to day’s high of 7806 in early morning trades but failed to sustain at higher levels on profit taking and slipped to session low of 7746 in late afternoon trades. The counter however, recovered in closing hours and finally closed with marginal gain of 23 points. The counter to retain its up move needs to trade and remain above 7811.75 whereby it may move up to 7825/7842. Strong support for the counter exists at 7771.25 which if breached decisively with volumes then it may slide to 7754/7735.
BANK NIFTY FUTURE (Last close 15494.60)
The counter after strong opening yesterday surged to day’s high of 15660 in morning trades which however, remained short lived on profit taking dipping to session low of 15405 in late afternoon trades. The counter however, recovered in closing hours and finally closed with marginal gain of 44 points. The counter to retain its up move needs to trade and remain above 15543.75 whereby it may move up to 15621/15675. Strong support for the counter exists at 15441.25 which if breached decisively with volumes then it may slide to 15375/15316.
TATA CHEMICAL FUTURE (Last close 346.75)
The stock after consolidating during the past sessions closed yesterday near its weekly resistance with moderate volumes gaining over 1%. The stock appears positive on charts and may move up to 351/354 on volume trading. Strong support for the stock exists at 343.25.
LIC HOUSING FUTURE (Last close 312.60)
The stock after consolidating during the past week closed yesterday near its weekly resistance with moderate volumes gaining over ½%. The stock appears positive on charts and may move up to 315/317 on volume trading. Strong support for the stock exists at 309.00.

Nifty chart: a mid-week update (Jul 23 ‘14)

Stock markets have this uncanny habit of knowing exactly what everyone wants and expects to happen, and then doing the complete opposite – leaving experts and small investors frustrated, baffled and searching for explanations.

Everyone was expecting a deeper correction from the Jul 8 ‘14 top of 7808 – at least to the ‘gap’ zone formed on the Nifty chart (below) on May 13 ‘14. That would have improved the technical ‘health’ of the chart and provided a buying opportunity to many who have missed the entire rally since the Aug ‘13 low (marked by Up trend line 2).
Instead, Nifty took support from its rising 50 day EMA and rallied to new intra-day and closing highs today. If you have been waiting for a deeper correction to buy, you may have missed the bus. Don’t lose heart. Markets have a strange way of providing many chances to enter.

Nifty_Jul2314

For bulls, there is plenty of good news. FIIs are back in ‘buy mode’, and have so far net purchased worth Rs 8500 Crores in July. DII net selling worth Rs 4700 Crores haven’t quite kept pace with FII buying. So, who sold the rest? You tell me.

All three EMAs are rising and the index is trading above them in a long-term bull market. Daily technical indicators are looking bullish but not overbought. That means there can be more up side in the near term.
Bears are not going to throw in the towel just yet. Note that volumes have been sliding since the upward ‘gap’ got formed more than 2 months ago. All four technical indicators touched lower tops today while Nifty touched an all-time high. The combined negative divergences may lead to a correction or consolidation.

By touching a top that was less than half a point higher than the Jul 8 top of 7808, accompanied by lower volumes, Nifty may be forming a ‘double top’ reversal pattern. The pattern will get confirmed only if the index falls below the July 14 low of 7422 (‘valley’ between the two tops). Should it do so – and I am not saying it will – then the downside target will be in the middle of the ‘gap’ zone.

Don’t jump in with both feet. Nor should you keep waiting for a correction. The trick to making money in the stock market is to choose fundamentally strong stocks and keep adding to them on a regular basis as per proper financial and asset allocation plans. As simple as that.

Tuesday, 22 July 2014

Gold and Silver charts: an update

Gold Chart Pattern
$GOLD-001-001

The bear market rally on the 6 months daily bar chart pattern of gold from Jun 17 to Jul 11 ‘14 formed a bearish ‘rising wedge’ pattern from which the price broke sharply downwards on very strong volumes on Jul 14 ‘14.
The following remarks were made in the previous post on gold: “The price band between 1330-1350 is a resistance zone, which needs to be crossed convincingly if bulls are to overcome the Mar ‘14 top of 1395, and regain control.”

Gold’s price took support from its 200 day EMA and the lower edge of the wedge, and spiked up on good volumes to touch the upper edge of the wedge – just short of the 1350 level on Jul 10 ‘14.

After dropping below all three EMAs, gold’s price pulled back towards the break down point on the lower edge of the wedge, providing a selling opportunity. MACD and RSI are in bullish zones, but looking weak. Slow stochastic has bounced up from its oversold zone, but is yet to cross above its 50% level.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), gold’s price is trading above its 20 week EMA but below its 50 week and 200 week EMAs in a long-term bear market. Bears are likely to use any rallies to sell.

Silver Chart Pattern
$SILVER-001-001 

The bear market rally on the 6 months daily bar chart pattern of silver followed in the footsteps of the yellow metal by forming a bearish ‘rising wedge’ pattern from which an expected downward break occurred on Jul 14 ‘14.
Such break downs (or break outs) are often followed by pull backs towards the break down (or break out) point. That is exactly what silver’s price did by crossing the 21.25 level – giving another opportunity to sell for those who may have missed selling on the break down below the wedge.

In the previous post, the following comments were made: “The 200 day EMA has provided good support on the downside so far. If the support holds, then silver’s price may attempt to cross above the resistance zone between 21.25-21.75. Unless that happens, bears will use every opportunity to sell, as they have been doing for the past two trading sessions.”

MACD and RSI corrected down from their respective overbought zones and remain in bullish zones, but their upward momentum has disappeared. Slow stochastic bounced up from the edge of its oversold zone, but is below its 50% level.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), silver’s price is trading above its 20 week EMA but below its 50 week and 200 week EMAs in a long-term bear market.

Monday, 21 July 2014

INDEX AND EQUITY OPTIONS CALLS FOR 22ND JULY 2014

BUY BANKNIFTY 15700CE AT/ABOVE 72 FOR TARGETS OF 116/139/149 WITH SL OF 46
BUY BANKNIFTY 15100PE AT/ABOVE 91.5 FOR TARGETS OF 110/120/135 WITH SL OF 78.25
BUY NIFTY 7700CE AT/ABOVE 52.25 FOR TARGETS OF 64.75/71.5/80.5 WITH SL OF 43.5
BUY NIFTY 7700PE AT/ABOVE 68 FOR TARGETS OF 77.55/83/95 WITH SL OF 60
BUY SBIN 2550CE AT/ABOVE 30.5 FOR TARGETS OF 51.1/62.2/72 WITH SL OF 16.5
BUY SBIN 2550PE AT/ABOVE 52 FOR TARGETS OF 64.75/71.9/80.9 WITH SL OF 42
BUY RELIANCE 1000CE AT/ABOVE 14 FOR TARGETS OF 18/20.2/25 WITH SL OF 10
BUY RELIANCE 1000PE AT/ABOVE 15 FOR TARGETS OF 18.25/20.05/24.5 WITH SL OF 12
BUY AXISBANK 2050CE AT/ABOVE 33 FOR TARGETS OF 38.45/41.65/48.65 WITH SL OF 27.85
BUY AXISBANK 2000PE AT/ABOVE 30 FOR TARGETS OF 37.75/41.75/48.75 WITH SL OF 24
BUY SBIN 2800CE AT/ABOVE 70.5 FOR TARGETS OF 80.6/86/95 WITH SL OF 63.5
BUY SBIN 2600PE AT/ABOVE 53 FOR TARGETS OF 64.25/70.25/77.25 WITH SL OF 45.5
BUY INFY 3300CE AT/ABOVE 15 FOR TARGETS OF 28.75/36/44 WITH SL OF 6

Trading strategy for 22nd July 2014

The market opened strong on the back of better than expected RIL’s Q1 results but amid volatility and profit taking the market at close finally ended flat with FMCG and oil & gas sector stocks leading the gain. The Sensex closed at 25685 up by 43 points after making intra-day high of 25861 while the Nifty ended at 7684 gaining 20 points. The market breadth however, remained strong as 1809 stocks advanced while 1293 declined. Readers are advised to trade with caution keeping stock specific approach.
NIFTY FUTURE (Last close 7686.20)
The counter after strong opening yesterday and hitting day’ high of 7719 in late morning trades failed to sustain at higher levels on profit taking and slipped lower in subsequent sessions. The counter finally closed flat with marginal gain of 16 points. The counter may move up to 7705/7729 on positive opening. Strong support for the counter exists at 7671.25 which if breached decisively with volumes then it may slide to 7651/7632.
BANK NIFTY FUTURE (Last close 15410.65)
The counter after strong opening yesterday and hitting session high of 15577 in morning trades failed to sustain at higher levels on profit taking and drifted lower as the session progressed. The counter finally closed flat with marginal loss. The counter to gain strength needs to trade and remain above 15457.75 whereby it may move up to 15525/15578. Strong support for the counter exists at 15368.25 which if breached decisively with volumes then it may slide to 15307/15239.
BHARTI AIRTEL FUTURE (Last close 338.55)
The stock after consolidating during the past week closed yesterday above its weekly buy signal with moderate volumes gaining ½%. The stock appears positive on charts and may move up to 341/344 on volume trading. Strong support for the stock exists at 336.00.
COAL INDIA FUTURE (Last close 378.55)
The stock after consolidating during the past week closed yesterday above its weekly buy signal with moderate volumes gaining over ½%. The stock appears positive on charts and may move up to 382/385 on volume trading. Strong support for the stock exists at 374.00.
Disclosures: At the time of writing this article, author, his clients & dependent family members may have positions in the stocks mentioned above. The author, his firm, his clients or any of his dependent family members may make purchases or sale of the securities mentioned in website. Author may have positions in above stocks so have vested interest obviously in their going up or down as the case may be.
Disclaimer : Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken by them. The author won’t be liable or responsible for any legal or financial losses made by anybody.

Saturday, 19 July 2014

EQUITY CALLS IN MARKET HOURS AND MARKET OUTLOOK – 21.7.2014

Pre-market Future Call ( Intraday) :
DLF  —  Buy above 221  StopLoss 217 Target 225 , 228
Short Sell below 217  StopLoss 221 Target 213 , 210
RELCAPITAL  — Buy above 594  StopLoss 588  Target  600 , 606
Short Sell below 588  StopLoss 594 Target 582 , 576

Stock Index Chart Patterns: CAC 40, DAX, RTS – Jul 18, ‘14

CAC 40 Index Chart (France)
CAC_Jul1814

The following comments were made in last week’s analysis of the 6 months daily bar chart pattern of CAC 40: “Is the correction over? Negative divergences, still visible on the technical indicators, are suggesting otherwise.”
Though the index closed 19 points higher for the week, it has been consolidating within a 100 points zone between 4275-4375 – possibly forming a bearish ‘flag’ pattern in the process. The likely break out from the ‘flag’ is downwards.

Bears are unlikely to release their strong grip on the chart unless the index crosses convincingly above 4375 and its falling 20 day EMA. Bearish technical indicators are suggesting that may be easier said than done.
MACD is inside its oversold zone, moving sideways below its falling signal line. RSI bounced up from the edge of its oversold zone, but remains below its 50% level. Slow stochastic emerged from its oversold zone, but its upward momentum has stalled well below its 50% level.

All three indicators continue to show negative divergences by falling below their respective Feb ‘14 lows, while the index touched a higher low. A fall below 4275 can drop the index towards 4000.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index is receiving support from its 50 week EMA and is trading above its 50 week and 200 week EMAs in a long-term bull market. However, weekly technical indicators have turned bearish. The support from the 50 week EMA may get breached. Hold with a strict stop-loss at 4275.

DAX Index Chart (Germany)
DAX_Jul1814

More downside was expected in last week’s analysis of the 6 months daily bar chart pattern of DAX due to bearish technical indicators. Instead, the index used the support from the 9600 level to rally briefly past the 9800 level and its 20 day and 50 day EMAs.

The lower top of 9871 – touched on Wed. Jul 16 – gave an excuse for bears to resume their selling. The index dropped below its 20 day and 50 day EMAs into the support zone between 9600-9800. Will the support hold again?

Volumes on Fri. Jul 18 were the highest in 4 weeks as the index opened with a downward gap and dropped below the 9700 level – indicating strong bear dominance. Bulls fought back and the index closed near its highest level with a 54 points gain for the week.

All three daily technical indicators are in bearish zones. Bulls are likely to defend the 9600 level strongly, because a drop below it can take the index much lower towards 9000-9250.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), the index is continuing to receive support from its 20 week EMA, and is trading above its 50 week and 200 week EMAs in a long-term bull market. However, weekly technical indicators are falling within bullish zones. Hold with a strict stop-loss at 9600.

RTS Index Chart (Russia)
RTSI_Jul1814

The 4 months long bull rally from the Mar ‘14 low on the 6 months daily bar chart pattern of RTSI appears to be over. The following bearish possibility was mentioned in last week’s analysis:

“By touching a slightly lower intra-day top of 1420 on Thu. Jul 10, and forming a ‘reversal day’ pattern (higher high, lower close), the possibility of a ‘double top’ reversal pattern has come to the fore. However, the pattern will get confirmed only if the index falls below the 1350 level.”

The index confirmed the ‘double top’ reversal pattern by falling below 1350 and its 50 day and 200 day EMAs – back into bear country. The stop-loss at 1325 got triggered in the process. The 50 day EMA is about to cross below the 200 day EMA and confirm the return to a bear market.

Technical indicators are looking bearish, and a bit oversold. MACD is falling below its signal line and has dropped inside negative zone. RSI has dropped almost to the edge of its oversold zone. Slow stochastic has entered its oversold zone. Any upward bounce from here is likely to face more selling.

Tuesday, 15 July 2014

WTI and Brent Crude Oil charts: bull markets face strong bear attacks

WTI Crude chart
WTI Crude_Jul1414

In the previous post on the 6 months daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude oil, oil’s price was consolidating in the resistance zone between 105-108. The following cautionary remark was made:“Failure to breach the 108 level may enthuse bears to become active.”

The consolidation was expected to continue a bit, and it did so for the next 6 sessions. Once the 105 level was breached convincingly on the down side on Jul 2, oil’s price dropped like a stone below its 200 day EMA, before pulling back to the long-term average.

What caused the sudden fall in price? Was it because Iraq’s main oilfields were safe from the ISIS rebels? Or, did Libyan supply flood the market to cause a supply/demand mismatch? Or, was it just profit booking after a technical resistance zone proved too tough a hurdle for bulls?
It doesn’t really matter. Daily technical indicators had reached overbought zones, and that is often a precursor to a correction. Now, the technical indicators are looking oversold – which could lead to a bounce up in price.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil’s price is seeking support from its 50 week EMA and is trading well above its rising 200 week EMA in a long-term bull market. However, weekly technical indicators are looking a bit bearish. That could lead to some more correction or consolidation.

Brent Crude chart
BrentCrude_Jul1414

In the previous post on the 6 months daily bar chart pattern of Brent Crude oil, overbought technical indicators had pointed to a correction. Oil’s price was expected to drop to 112. But the bear attack was much more severe.

Oil’s price dropped nearly 10 points down to the 106 level – well below its 200 day EMA in bear territory. All three daily technical indicators are inside their oversold zones and showing negative divergences by falling below their respective lows touched at the beginning of April while oil’s price touched a higher low.

On longer term weekly chart (not shown), oil’s price has dropped below its 20 week and 50 week EMAs but is trading above its 200 week EMA in a long-term bull market. Weekly technical indicators are looking bearish. Some more correction or consolidation is likely.

Monday, 14 July 2014

BANKNIFTY AND NIFTY FUTURES LEVELS FOR 15TH JULY 2014

BANKNIFTY FUTURES LEVELS FOR THE DAY:
BANKNIFTY RANGE FOR THE DAY IS 14365-14760
Resistances are at 14630-14690-14760 and supports at 14499-14430
Above 14760 is a range breakout with further targets/resistances placed at 14875-14985
Below 14365 is a range breakdown with further targets/supports placed at 14300-14200
BankNifty Futures is strong only above 14545
NIFTY FUTURES LEVELS FOR THE DAY:
NIFTY RANGE FOR THE DAY IS 7410-7540
Resistances are at 7496-7514-7540 and supports at 7455-7438-7410
Above 7540 is a range breakout with further targets/resistances placed at 7570-7599
Below 7410 is a range breakdown with further supports/targets placed at 7350-7315
Nifty Futures is strong only above 7482

S&P 500, FTSE 100 charts: recovering after bull market corrections

In last week’s analysis of the 6 months daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500, overbought technical indicators displaying negative divergences had hinted at a possible correction. The correction was a mild one – less than 2% from its lifetime peak of 1985 (touched on Jul 3).
Volumes were strong on down days, but the rising 20 day EMA provided good support. At the time of writing this post, the index has recovered most of its losses of last week. The mild correction should enable the index to rise to a new high soon.
Daily technical indicators are in bullish zones after correcting overbought conditions. MACD is below its signal line inside overbought territory, but has stopped falling. RSI and Slow stochastic dropped from their respective overbought zones, but stopped short of their 50% levels.

Sunday, 13 July 2014

BANK NIFTY/ NIFTY FUTURE CALLS IN MARKET HOURS AND MARKET OUTLOOK – 14.7.2014

Nifty ( Spot ) :
The crucial support for the Nifty is at 7400 – 7375 – 7350  and the resistance is at  7550 – 7575
“line-height: 16.5pt;background: white;margin: 0in 0in 18.85pt 0in”>Pre-market Future Call ( Intraday) :
LT
 Buy above 1580  StopLoss 1570 Target 1590 , 1599
Short Sell below 1570  StopLoss 1580 Target 1561 , 1550
Pre-market Future Call ( Intraday) :
TATASTEEL
Buy above 495  StopLoss 489  Target  500 , 505
Short Sell below 489  StopLoss 495 Target 484 , 478

Technical updates – Punj Lloyd and Suzlon

The two budget proposals during the week were met with widespread selling in the stock market. Huge expectations from the Modi-led NDA government had caused a sharp rise in stock prices – particularly of stocks from the infrastructure sector.

It turned out to be a case of ‘buy the rumour and sell the news’. The budget proposals had few populist measures and no big-bang reform proposals. Perhaps it was too much to expect from a government that has spent less than 2 months in power.

Interestingly, many stocks hit their peaks in June ‘14, well before the two budgets. The two stocks discussed below were darlings of small investors during the 2003-2007 bull market. Their tough times continue despite significant gains from recent lows.

Punj Lloyd
PunjLloyd_Jul1114

The stock of Punj Lloyd had closed at 63 back in Jan ‘13. But that was a bear market rally top. The stock soon dropped below all three EMAs. Another rally carried the stock to a lower top of 56 in May ‘13 – but the long-term support/resistance level of 57 stalled the rally.

The stock plummeted like a stone to drop to a low of 21 in end-Aug ‘13, where it formed a small double-bottom reversal pattern and started to recover. After climbing above its 20 day and 50 day EMAs, the stock entered a sideways consolidation with a slight upward bias that lasted 7 months.

All three EMAs converged in May ‘14 – and as often happens, a sharp price spurt on strong volumes followed. The stock again faced resistance from the 57 level, and has corrected down to its 50 day EMA. Technical indicators are looking bearish and oversold, which may lead to a bounce up.

The stock is technically in a bull market – but invest at your own peril. Fundamentals are atrocious.

Suzlon
Suzlon_Jul1114

The Suzlon stock has a love-hate relationship with me. I love to hate it. If you don’t know why, please read this post
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The stock spent a long period in bear territory and dropped to penny-stock status in Jun ‘13. It dropped to a low below 6 in Aug ‘13 before recovering to test its 200 day EMA in Oct ‘13.  The next 6 months were spent in a sideways consolidation in and out of penny-stock status.

A sharp rally in Apr ‘14 propelled the stock to a 2 years high of 36 in Jun ‘14 – a whopping 6-bagger gain in less than a year! All four technical indicators became overbought. The subsequent correction has dropped the stock to its 50 day EMA.

Technical indicators are looking oversold, and the stock price may bounce up from here. The company has huge losses and massive debt. Stay as far away as possible.

Milestones You Must Pass to Become a Trader

Most people jump into the stock market expecting instant, grandiose results that are not realistic. Sorry to burst your bubble, but trading success is a marathon, not a sprint! For a lot of people that is hard to hear. They don’t want to train, they don’t want to get out of their comfort zone, they don’t want to change their lifestyle in order to achieve success. They want money to be handed to them on a silver platter.
We are here to tell you the truth: There are no shortcuts. Successful trading is hard work, and any other line of thinking is a one-way ticket to failure.
Trading is a journey, and you need to treat it as such. Back to the marathon analogy for a moment. When you are training for an endurance race, you don’t immediately go out the first day and run 26.2 miles, or even 10 miles. The first thing you do is build a realistic step-by-step program to build up your endurance based on your starting point. If you try to run too far, or too fast, you could injure yourself or damage your psyche.
Trading is the exact same way.
Goal-setting is extremely important in life, and especially in trading. Yes, you should have a long-term goal of where you want to eventually get to, but you also need to have short-term goals that are specific, realistic, and measurable.
In this article , I lay out what I believe to be a the four milestones, or checkpoints, that every trader should pass through before trying to take the next step. In my opinion, if you try to bypass one of these milestones, you will end up costing yourself a considerable amount of money in the long-term.
 1. Trade 100 shares until you have become consistently profitable for a three-month period.
It might get frustrating to trade small size, but during that initial phase you are training your hands, eyes, and, most importantly, your mind. Learn how to punch the keys fast and efficiently, develop a routine for watching stocks, and build good habits. During this period, you should craft a specific style of trading and be able to define your “edge.” If it takes you longer than three months to get past this phase, that is OK and normal. Again, in our opinion, if you try to bypass this stage and trade bigger size before you are ready, it will cost you money.
2. Increase share size and manage multiple positions at once.
In the first stage, you want to focus on micro-managing one position at a time, learning the ins and outs of how stocks move. Once you have mastered that skill, it’s time to take a step up. Don’t increase your share size by 10 times immediately, take incremental steps higher. Trade 200 then 300, and when you have achieved consistently at those levels, then make the jump to maybe 500, 600. Don’t ever trade more size than you are comfortable with.
In the same vein, don’t go from managing one position at a time to 10. Add more positions incrementally as you get more comfortable and you get more clarity on the market. Eventually, you hope to get to a level of someone like big traderswho often holds 20-30 positions at any given time, but keep in mind that he has been on his trading journey for more than 15 years and has developed his skills over a period of time.
3. Add more indicators and another level of sophistication to your analysis.
In the first stage of the trader path, you should be able to define your edge, but that doesn’t mean you have a complete tool belt! The core of your strategy should not change; you should simply add a few indicators to sharpen that edge. A few price action strategy that you may consider (which are taught in our Trading Courses) .
Adding a couple of price action strategy to your trading arsenal can be a powerful step, but it is very important not to use too many indicators.  If you try to wait for trades where seven to eight strategy line up, then you may never place a single trade! Find a few go-to strategy  in which you have supreme confidence, and incorporate them into your trading.